Hammer or Ponga? Will a captain be dumped? The 40 players locked in wild State of Origin shootout

The eyes of the rugby league world will be fixed on certain players over round 11 as State of Origin selection for the series opener looms.

By Wide World of Sports' count, as many as 40 players remain in contention for the Queensland or NSW squads. We reckon 13 players are locked in - so long as they get through this weekend injury or suspension free.

Maroons coach Billy Slater and Blues coach Laurie Daley will on Monday unveil their teams for game one of the 2025 series, which kicks off on May 28.

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Here are the biggest remaining questions which will be answered over the next three days.

PONGA OR THE HAMMER?

Kalyn Ponga was assumed a shoo-in for the Maroons fullback job as soon as Broncos fullback Reece Walsh went down injured, ruling him out of the first game.

But the lacklustre form of his club side Newcastle may have played Ponga out of Queensland selection, having lost six of their last seven games including a stunning last-start loss to Gold Coast where they gave up a 20-0 lead.

On the other hand, Hamiso Tabaui-Fidow was instrumental in the Dolphins holding on to beat Parramatta last week and has been in blistering form at club level.

Ponga faces the Eels on Friday night and a dominant performance should land him the No.1 jersey, but a stinker could very well end his selection hopes.

The up-and-down Dolphins host the Warriors on Saturday afternoon and a blinder from The Hammer could force Slater's hand into a backline reshuffle.

Tabuai-Fidow hasn't started a game at fullback for Queensland thus far in his career, but has been a standout in the centres and is one of the side's most dangerous weapons.

The wildcard for selectors is the potential of shifting Cameron Munster to fullback, which was publicly floated by injured star Ben Hunt this week.

The good thing for coach Slater is that even without Walsh, who dominated his rookie Origin series two years ago, the Maroons have plenty of options at the back.

WHO PARTNERS NATHAN CLEARY?

Laurie Daley has all-but confirmed Nathan Cleary will wear the No.7 jumper for the Blues in the series opener, despite not featuring in last year's series win.

The four-time premiership winner was sidelined in 2024 due to injury, which saw both Jarome Luai and Mitchell Moses stand up in his absence.

However, three players don't fit into two positions and as Daley has already shown his hand with public comments regarding Cleary, it leaves him with a huge call to make.

Moses likely has the inside running to play five-eighth, with Daley endorsing his ability to play as a second-receiver and running half at Origin level.

After coming back from a foot injury, Moses has been excellent for Parramatta, but has only managed to lift the 17th-placed outfit to one victory in his three appearances.

Luai has been solid without being spectacular this year since joining the Wests Tigers, but his leadership has seen the three-time wooden spooners rise up the ladder.

The former Panthers star has a built-in combination with Cleary and a number of other players who are likely to feature in the NSW line up.

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There's not necessarily a wrong choice for Daley to make - but if it doesn't result in a victory, you can bet your bottom dollar there will be backlash and a possible change for game two.

WHO WINS THE MAROONS WING BATTLE?

One of the dilemmas for Queensland that hasn't been spoken about surrounds the two wing positions, with Slater and company spoiled for choice out wide.

Xavier Coates and Murray Taulagi were the two wingers selected to start in game one last year, while Selwyn Cobbo featured on the bench in the series opener.

The Cobbo selection proved a masterstroke when Walsh was knocked out of game one early in the contest.

Later in the series, Cobbo came into the starting side to replace an injured Coates, while Taulagi missed out on game three and Valentine Holmes played on the wing.

Coates is probably guaranteed one spot, so the other is still up for grabs and similar to the halves debate for NSW, there's no wrong answer here, because all three are world-class wingers and have starred at both club and rep level.

Slater's decision could also tie into who plays fullback, with Cobbo more than capable of slotting into the centres should Tabuai-Fidow be selected in the No.1 jersey.

WILL BLUES AXE THE CAPTAIN?

It's the elephant in the room that simply won't go away and at this stage, Laurie Daley has failed to give a clear indication surrounding last year's skipper.

Everyone knows what Jake Trbojevic brings to any team he plays in. He's defensively sound and is the ultimate competitor who motivates those around him.

But the truth is, his form for the Sea Eagles and the lack of impact he had from an on-field perspective in last year's Origin series doesn't warrant a spot in the 17.

Could the new coach axe the heart and soul of the Blues? Absolutely he could and there's no shortage of options for both the captaincy and the middle-forward rotation.

Isaah Yeo and Nathan Cleary have led Penrith to four-straight premierships, while the impressive way in which Stephen Crichton has taken the Bulldogs to new heights over the past 12 months can't be discounted either.

As for potential front-rowers, Daley has an abundance to choose from.

Payne Haas is likely the first name on the team sheet, while it's hard to fathom Mitch Barnett not being selected, whether it's to start or come off the bench.

Spencer Leniu is all-but secured a spot on the bench, given his unbelievable impact.

The other players in contention to play in the include Terrell May, who sits second on the Dally M leaderboard, as well as Jacob Saifiti, Max King and Stefano Utoikamanu.

With four front-rowers usually selected in an Origin side, all of those would appear to be more inspired selections than Trbojevic, who is a very real chance of missing out.

IS HARRY GRANT FIT TO PLAY?

He would be one of the first players selected for any representative team, but there are still question marks over Harry Grant's fitness and hamstring injury.

The superstar hooker hasn't played since round six and isn't even a certain start for the Storm in round 11, which will be worrying those north of the border.

Even if he does play for Melbourne this weekend, Grant hasn't been utilised as an 80-minute hooker at Origin level since making his debut five years ago, instead splitting time spent in the key position with Ben Hunt, who is now out due to injury.

Assuming that he's selected to wear the No.9 jumper for the Maroons, the biggest dilemma for coach Slater surrounds the crucial bench utility role.

The two main names who have been mentioned - Kurt Mann and Tom Dearden - don't play hooker in club land and wouldn't offer the same as Hunt.

Dearden is an out-and-out playmaker, which limits the type of role he can play, while Mann has played every position under the sun in his career but has settled into a ball-playing middle-forward style of role at the Bulldogs.

Reed Mahoney is the only genuine hooker who is in contention behind Grant, but again would struggle to fill any other position on the field if he was named on the bench, while Max Plath - who could have been a perfect bench option - is sidelined with injury.

The genuine smokey in the race to wear the No.14 jumper is teenager Jaxon Purdue, who can cover anywhere in the backline, but would also struggle to play hooker.

It's borderline impossible to prepare for every situation Origin can throw at you, but the concern around Grant's hamstring will be giving the selectors a major headache.

WILL JAMES TEDESCO'S FORM BE ENOUGH?

This time last year when James Tedesco was dropped from the NSW team, his career at the representative level looked as though it had come to an end.

The veteran fullback earned a brief reprieve when Dylan Edwards was ruled out, but once the Panthers star returned for game two, Tedesco was dumped once again.

Coming into the 2025 season, few could have expected Penrith's form to dip to the extent that it has, which has placed Edwards' spot in the NSW team in jeopardy.

Tedesco on the other hand has been back to his brilliant best for the Roosters and has many pushing for him to earn a recall to the game's fiercest arena.

They aren't the only two options either, with Ryan Papenhuyzen shooting the lights out for Melbourne this year, while there are some within the game angling for Tom Trbojevic to be selected in the No.1 jumper despite his injury woes at Manly.

Even the fleet-footed Scott Drinkwater wouldn't look out of place in the Blues team.

Edwards still likely has his nose in front, but the form of Tedesco and Papenhuyzen certainly makes for an intriguing debate around perhaps the most important position.

WHO PREVAILS IN BACK-ROW LOGJAMS?

Queensland have a plethora of solid edge forward options at their disposal, with only Jeremiah Nanai seen as a certainty at this stage.

Another front-runner is Tom Gilbert, who is back on deck for the Dolphins after a horror run with injuries and can play back-row or in the middle.

Last year, the likes of Jaydn Su'A and Kurt Capewell were used at different stages, while Brendan Piakura also found himself in the extended squad for his state.

But perhaps the most likely man to partner Nanai on the edge - or earn a spot on the bench - is Titans star Beau Fermor, who has been in great form.

Fermor has been endorsed by plenty of former Queensland players in recent weeks and if it weren't for injuries in the past, could have already made his Origin debut.

Kulikefu Finefeuiaki is also an outside chance, but would add plenty of X-factor.

And if you think that's a back-row logjam, the Blues have an even greater list of names.

Liam Martin and Angus Crichton were dominant in last year's series and it's hard to fathom a world where both men aren't in the 17 somewhere for the opening game.

Historically speaking, Origin sides will include three genuine edge forwards, which will leave another spot open for some quality talent to stake their claim.

Hudson Young has not just been one of the best forwards in the game this year, but genuinely one of the best players in the entire NRL, which makes him tough to go past.

However, wrecking ball Haumole Olakau'atu offers something completely different and it's hard to argue that the Manly star is more suited to the bench impact style.

Then there's someone like Keaon Koloamatangi, who almost certainly should have featured more for the Blues in his career to date and has been going well for Souths.

Koloamatangi has shown his versatility, covering both edge and middle in club land, which could lend himself to a bench position for NSW.

Jacob Preston also would have been knocking on the door if not for his suspension, while Tigers young gun Samuela Fainu is probably another year or two away.

ORIGIN SELECTION STATE OF PLAY

BLUES LOCKS - 7

Stephen Crichton, Nathan Cleary, Payne Haas, Angus Crichton, Liam Martin, Isaah Yeo, Spencer Leniu

BLUES IN CONTENTION - 20

Dylan Edwards, James Tedesco, Ryan Papenhuyzen, Tom Trbojevic, Latrell Mitchell, Bradman Best, Jarome Luai, Mitchell Moses, Reece Robson, Api Koroisau, Jake Trbojevic, Mitch Barnett, Jacob Saifiti, Max King, Stefano Utoikamanu, Hudson Young, Haumole Olakau'atu, Keaon Koloamatangi, Connor Watson, Matt Burton

MAROONS LOCKS - 6

Xavier Coates, Cameron Munster, Daly Cherry-Evans, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Patrick Carrigan, Tino Fa'asuamaleaui, Jeremiah Nanai

MAROONS IN CONTENTION - 20

Kalyn Ponga, Selwyn Cobbo, Murray Taulagi, Valentine Holmes, Tom Dearden, Jaxon Purdue, Harry Grant, Reed Mahoney, Kurt Mann, Lindsay Collins, Moeaki Fotuaika, Corey Horsburgh, Reuben Cotter, Jaydn Su'A, Kurt Capewell, Beau Fermor, Tom Gilbert, Brendan Piakura, Kulikefu Finefeuiaki, Jai Arrow