Victoria Derby formguide: How a race with a controversial finish hangs over the odds-on favourite for Saturday's $2m classic

There might be a short-priced favourite in this year's Victoria Derby, but don't be fooled by the eye-catching last-start performance from Observer.

The three-year-old was miles ahead of his competition in the Group 2 Vase at Moonee Valley but was eased down right before the line by jockey Mark Zahra, who was later fined for failing to fully ride out the $1.75 winner to the finishing post.

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The colt has been confirmed to back up for the Derby over 2500m and the Godolphin runner will again start at the short odds of $2.15 with bookmakers TAB.

However, according to racing expert David Gately, the danger in the race is the Chris Waller-trained Providence, who bolted home for second last weekend and could take out the Derby at a much nicer price for punters at $6.50 at the time of publishing.

While he believes Observer is a deserved favourite, Gately is leaning towards his rival.

"He [Observer] exploded when they put the foot down, he put five lengths on them in the blink of an eye," he said on Wide World of Sports Victoria Derby preview.

"Providence was excellent though in that same race. I know Observer was eased down and it might have been flattering a bit to the eye, but geez he was powering and on times and measures, he was running home quicker than good, older horses on the day.

"He gets to 2500m and I can't believe the price differential on TAB. I'm gonna lean to Providence at the price … I think it's a great bet."

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The time-honoured Derby is one of three Group 1 races at Flemington on Saturday, with the barrier draw for the Melbourne Cup to take place immediately following the card.

In the other Group 1 races on the day, Gately is backing Idle Flyer to win in the Empire Rose Stakes over 1600m and Beiwacht to claim the Coolmore Stud Stakes over 1200m.

Here's every runner competing in the Derby. Odds courtesy of TAB.

1. Observer (4)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Mark Zahra

Career: 6: 2-2-1

Odds: $2.10 / $1.26

2. Highvol (15)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Nick Ryan

Jockey: Jamie Mott

Career: 7: 2-1-0

Odds: $23 / $5

3. Autumn Mystery (17)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Rory Hunter

Jockey: Blake Shinn

Career: 9: 2-2-2

Odds: $9 / $2.70

4. Miewa (8)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Nick Ryan

Jockey: Jordan Childs

Career: 7: 1-2-0

Odds: $19 / $4.60

5. Options (7)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Tony & Calvin McEvoy

Jockey: Harry Coffer

Career: 5: 3-0-1

Odds: $15 / $3.90

6. Providence (12)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Craig Williams

Career: 8: 0-1-2

Odds: $6.50 / $2.20

7. Azazel (10)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Mark Walker

Jockey: Michael Dee

Career: 3: 2-0-0

Odds: $23 / $5

8. Arcora (11)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: T Busuttin & N Young

Jockey: John Allen

Career: 8: 1-2-1

Odds: $41 / $9

9. O'Sheamus (5)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: J O'Shea & T Charlton

Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy

Career: 5: 1-0-1

Odds: $18 / $4.40

10. Amazake (6)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Declan Bates

Career: 5-0-1-1

Odds: $41 / $9

11. Engine Of War (9)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: M Price & M Kent Jr

Jockey: Tommy Berry

Career: 4-1-1-1

Odds: $19 / $4.60

12. Matsuda (19)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Thomas Stockdale

Career: 5: 1-1-0

Odds: $51 / $11

13. One Step Closer (2)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: J O'Shea & T Charlton

Jockey: Jye McNeil

Career: 6: 1-0-0

Odds: $41 / $9

14. Savisanta (3)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Ben Melham

Career: 4-0-3-1

Odds: $23 / $5

15. McWoody (16)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Mark Walker

Jockey: Jamie Melham

Career: 2-1-0-0

Odds: $61 / $13

16. Deal Done Fast (1)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Daniel Stackhouse

Jockey: Matthew Cumani

Career: 3: 0-1-0

Odds: $41 / $9

17. Arabian Prince (20)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Michael Kent

Jockey: Craig Williams

Career: 3: 0-0-1

Odds: $19 / $5

18. Freddie Bassett (14)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Annabel & Rob Archibald

Jockey: Ben Allen

Career: 5: 0-2-0

Odds: $61 / $12

19. Crack A Deel (13)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Henry Dwyer

Jockey: N/A

Career: 6: 1-0-1

Odds: $151 / $26

20. Super Paradise (18)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Andrew Forsman

Jockey: N/A

Career: 6: 1-0-1

Odds: $151 / $26