Michelle Payne's Melbourne Cup form guide: Gai Waterhouse runner 'given some hope' despite 'poor' last start

Melbourne Cup horses, field, form guide: MICHELLE PAYNE is an expert analyst, trainer and remains the only female jockey to win the race that stops the nation.

The time has finally arrived for the Lexus Melbourne Cup, with plenty of live chances in the field of 24 runners on Tuesday afternoon.

Two overseas raiders loom as the top hopes after the barrier draw, but it will still be hard to go past a runner who produced a stellar run in the Caulfield Cup.

READ MORE: 'Horrible flop': Grim tip for iconic trainer's Cup chances

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READ MORE: Why every 2024 Melbourne Cup runner can - and can't - win the iconic $8.5m race

This year will also feature the most female jockeys in Cup history, with the in-form Jamie Kah on board one of the real hopes after a rollercoaster Derby day.

I've nailed down my two top tips, as well as some others who are more than capable of factoring into the finish in front of a packed house at Flemington.

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*All odds courtesy of TAB as of Sunday

1. VAUBAN (barrier 11)

Weight: 55.5kg

Trainer: Willie Mullins

Jockey: William Buick

Career: 20: 8-5-2

Last 6: x24312

Win range: 2200m-3382m

Earnings: $2,460,513

Odds: $6 / $2.50

I think the barrier draw is really ideal for him. He can land into a position from mid-field you would think and he is definitely one of the horses to beat. They have changed around their training from last year, obviously he was all the hype and they think that didn't work. They still believe they have a horse that can win the race and I think he's definitely a top-four hope in this year's Cup.

2. BUCKAROO (barrier 21)

Weight: 54.5kg

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Joao Moreira

Career: 22: 5-4-3

Last 6: x81122

Win range: 1600m-1800m

Earnings: $2,195,344

Odds: $6 / $2.50

The barrier says it all. He was excellent in the Caulfield Cup, he couldn't have been any better and only got shuffled back in the field through no fault of his own, it was just the way the race panned out. It was an excellent performance there and he's a horse with a great turn of foot and really strong through the line. He's obviously going to be very hard to beat, but it might be dependent on where Joao Moreira can slot him from that barrier and who knows, it could just be the luck of the draw with him.

3. CIRCLE OF FIRE (barrier 24)

Weight: 54.5kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Mark Zahra

Career: 13: 3-1-3

Last 6: 11x890

Win range: 1609m-3200m

Earnings: $1,729,794

Odds: $34 / $10

He was looking to be something really special when he won the Sydney Cup. I think the ability is there, he just hasn't come up. He will be finding it a bit hard to turn that form around for the big race, especially coming out of the widest barrier.

4. WARP SPEED (barrier 3)

Weight: 54.5kg

Trainer: Noboru Takagi

Jockey: Akira Sugawara

Career: 23: 4-3-4

Last 6: 4325x0

Win range: 2400m-3000m

Earnings: $15,989

Odds: $26 / $8

He's also got to turn his form around very quickly in a short period of time. He's drawn a good barrier which should obviously help and the better track may suit him, but it would be hard to see him turning it around in such quick fashion.

5. KOVALICA (barrier 17)

Weight: 53.5kg

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Damian Lane

Career: 24: 6-2-4

Last 6: 5x3426

Win range: 1600m-2400m

Earnings: $3,155,000

Odds: $21 / $6

The question mark on him is whether or not he can stay the trip out strongly enough. That would be my major query with him, but he's a quality horse.

6. SHARP 'N' SMART (barrier 15)

Weight: 53.5kg

Trainer: Team Rogerson

Jockey: Michael Dee

Career: 22: 6-5-2

Last 6: 9x0203

Win range: 1400m-2400m

Earnings: $2,948,184

Odds: $71 / $18

An interesting runner. He came second in last year's Derby and has progressed for another year. He was good in the Moonee Valley Cup in the lead-up, which can often be a good guide. Certainly not one without a chance, but the barrier doesn't help.

7. JUST FINE (barrier 13)

Weight: 53kg

Trainer: Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott

Jockey: Jye McNeil

Career: 25: 7-1-2

Last 6: x05010

Win range: 1600m-2520m

Earnings: $1,057,055

Odds: $34 / $10

He was pretty poor last start, but great at Flemington before that. Maybe being back to Flemington he will be on speed, but that's a tough way to win the Cup. He's back on a track that he performs well at, so that should give them some hope but would need to turn his form around rather quickly.

8. LAND LEGEND (barrier 18)

Weight: 53kg

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Zac Purton

Career: 13: 3-2-1

Last 6: 1x0613

Win range: 2050m-2600m

Earnings: $1,116,807

Odds: $18 / $6

He's a really interesting runner. If he could learn to relax, he'd be a genuine live chance. He's such a bold, strong horse and he was excellent in the Caulfield Cup, even though he did over-race quite badly and gave Zac Purton a pretty tough time. I think that's the key with him, just getting him to switch off, but the barrier won't help in regards to that. Zac has got some work on his hands, but he's definitely not without hope if he relaxes.

9. ABSURDE (barrier 7)

Weight: 52.5kg

Trainer: Willie Mullins

Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy

Career: 21: 6-6-2

Last 6: 041x41

Win range: 2000m-4023m

Earnings: $1,782,456

Odds: $10 / $3.50

He's one of my picks actually, I thought he was excellent in the Cup last year. Willie Mullins has tinkered with a few things this year and he hasn't raced too much since last year's run. They are very happy with him and he's drawn a good barrier, so hopefully he can pop in and get a nice run. He's definitely one of the main chances.

10. ATHABASCAN (SCRATCHED)

Weight: 52kg

Trainer: J O'Shea & T Charlton

Jockey: Zac Lloyd

Career: 29: 4-4-4

Last 6: 2x8001

Win range: 2000m-2600m

Earnings: $1,260,023

Odds: $41 / $11

Athabascan was scratched on Monday night.

11. KNIGHT'S CHOICE (barrier 6)

Weight: 51.5kg

Trainer: J & S Symons & Laxon

Jockey: Robbie Dolan

Career: 22: 5-3-2

Last 6: 349005

Win range: 1600m-2000m

Earnings: $632,400

Odds: $101 / $22

He was good in the Bendigo Cup. He didn't have a lot of luck, but it's just whether he has enough class for this level of competition.

12. OKITA SOUSHI (barrier 10)

Weight: 51kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Jamie Kah

Career: 18: 5-3-3

Last 6: 0x8021

Win range: 2149m-3219m

Earnings: $985,105

Odds: $21 / $6

I think he's a really good chance. He was excellent in the Moonee Valley Cup and brings real strong form into this. He looks like a lovely horse that will settle well and give himself every chance out of barrier 10, which is obviously ideal to go into a nice position. Jamie Kah is in hot form with 51kg, so he's definitely a live chance.

13. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR (barrier 12)

Weight: 51kg

Trainer: Brian Ellison

Jockey: Craig Williams

Career: 37: 5-11-5

Last 6: 821741

Win range: 2050m-3319m

Earnings: $1,133,261

Odds: $8.50 / $3.20

He was fantastic in the Geelong Cup and has drawn a good barrier. Craig Williams wouldn't have stuck with him if he didn't think he was a top chance. He is certainly one that can figure into the finish again here.

14. ZARDOZI (barrier4 )

Weight: 51kg

Trainer: James Cummings

Jockey: Andrew Atzeni

Career: 19: 6-3-1

Last 6: 665245

Win range: 1200m-2500m

Earnings: $1,793,300

Odds: $16 / $5

You can never rule out the Godolphin stable in big races. She was good in the Caulfield Cup and it was an interesting lead-up with her run on Saturday as a gallop into Tuesday. She's drawn a good barrier and is certainly in with a lightweight chance.

15. SEA KING (barrier 1)

Weight: 50.5kg

Trainer: Harry Eustace

Jockey: Hollie Doyle

Career: 19: 6-1-2

Last 6: 101361

Win range: 2050m-2615m

Earnings: $643,449

Odds: $10 / $3.50

He performed brilliantly in the Bendigo Cup. He made a good, long surging run and sustained that really well. Whether the inside gate suits him with the style he won that race with is yet to be seen, but I think the fact that it's a two-mile race will bring him right into his own. Hollie Doyle with 50.5kg is a very strong rider and she's already had one ride now in the Melbourne Cup and that will do her the world of good.

16. VALIANT KING (barrier 22)

Weight: 50.5kg

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Craig Newitt

Career: 11: 1-3-1

Last 6: 56x009

Win range: 2012m

Earnings: $365,108

Odds: $71 / $18

It's probably hard to see him winning from that barrier.

17. FANCY MAN (barrier 19)

Weight: 50kg

Trainer: Annabel & Rob Neasham & Archibald

Jockey: Ron Stewart

Career: 27: 5-4-5

Last 6: 10x536

Win range: 1442m-2414m

Earnings: $296,887

Odds: $81 / $20

I just don't know whether he's a real strong stayer at this level. He won the Queensland Cup well, but I just don't know if he has the class for this.

18. INTERPRETATION (barrier 14)

Weight: 50kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Teodore Nugent

Career: 23: 4-2-2

Last 6: 000862

Win range: 2012m-2816m

Earnings: $957,787

Odds: $17 / $5

This is a horse that has really improved. He took a little while to adjust to the southern hemisphere, but he was good in the Geelong Cup and is progressing in the right way.

19. MANZOICE (barrier 8)

Weight: 50kg

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Declan Bates

Career: 21: 2-4-1

Last 6: 0x2307

Win range: 1300m-2500m

Earnings: $1,461,725

Odds: $61 / $16

He was great in the Derby, but I'm not sure if he is going good enough to turn around the form going in the Melbourne Cup.

View gallery

Irony in horse hit by 'cursed' Melbourne Cup barrier

20. MOSTLY CLOUDY (barrier 16)

Weight: 50kg

Trainer: T & N Busuttin & Young

Jockey: Karis Teetan

Career: 28: 6-4-4

Last 6: 622440

Win range: 2500m-3318m

Earnings: $523,360

Odds: $101 / $22

I'm not sure he is going well enough for this race.

21. POSITIVITY (barrier 20)

Weight: 50kg

Trainer: Andrew Forsman

Jockey: Winona Costin

Career: 12: 4-2-0

Last 6: 1x2178

Win range: 1600m-2500m

Earnings: $477,995

Odds: $101 / $22

She's a really promising staying mare. She's showed glimpses of being pretty smart, so she's definitely not hopeless at a big price.

22. SAINT GEORGE (barrier 9)

Weight: 50kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Tyler Schiller

Career: 10: 2-1

Last 6: 3x8495

Win range: 2234m-2916m

Earnings: $397,627

Odds: $31 / $9

He might be a little sneaky hope. There was a question mark as to whether he was even going to take his place in the field, but they wouldn't have paid up if they didn't think he was a real chance to compete. He's drawn a good barrier and not without a chance.

23. THE MAP (barrier 23)

Weight: 50kg

Trainer: D & O Clarken Macgillivray

Jockey: Rachel King

Career: 32: 9-3-3

Last 6: 1x9056

Win range: 1400m-2800m

Earnings: $865,175

Odds: $41 / $11

It's a really tough draw, but she was fantastic in the Adelaide Cup over two miles. It was an OK sort of a run in the Geelong Cup, but not sure she's going quite good enough.

24. TRUST IN YOU (barrier 5)

Weight: 50kg

Trainer: B & G Wallace & Cooksley

Jockey: Mark Du Plessis

Career: 30: 4-5-1

Last 6: x63044

Win range: 1600m-2400m

Earnings: $340,133

Odds: $101 / $22

An interesting runner and you can never rule out the Kiwis, but it's whether or not he is good enough for a Melbourne Cup is another story.

MICHELLE PAYNE'S MELBOURNE CUP TIPS

I've been tossing between the Irish gallopers from the Willie Mullins stable.

I was with Absurde all the way, but I'm nervous about his stable mate Vauban. They're the top two for me from the barriers.

Buckaroo is a real chance even from the wide barrier and Joao Moreira should be able to navigate him across into a nice position and the horse is absolutely flying.

Okita Soushi is a real live chance after drawing a good barrier with Jamie Kah in really good form leading into the race.

1. Vauban
2. Absurde
3. Buckaroo
4. Okita Soushi