Red-hot Oaks favourite ‘picks herself’ as elite form laid bare

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It’s one of the most prestigious races of the Melbourne Cup carnival and the Crown VRC Oaks has a red-hot favourite at the top in 2026.

The time-honoured $1 million race for fillies brings some fantastic spring form lines from both Sydney and Melbourne this year and promises to be another high-quality race over the 2500m trip at Flemington.

Usually the key follow-up race comes in the Group 2 Wakeful Stakes – but this year, it’s south of the border that has TAB form analyst David Gately excited.

Speaking on Wide World of Sports’ Oaks preview, the long-time racing expert explained why the betting favourite “picks herself”.

“It’s a fascinating contest. There’s a lot of different angles which is a bit rare, normally it’s just the Wakeful and you look no further,” Gately said.

“Proxima Dea is a dominant favourite, but she’s drawn wide, so they’ll need a plan for her ... but it’s generally a great race for favourites and Proxima Dea picks herself, given she has just thrashed the Derby winner Stormy Marco.”

The unbeaten David Payne-trained filly has won all five of her career starts to date and was dominant in the Spring Champion Stakes at Royal Randwick. It has been installed as TAB’s $2.30 favourite for the Oaks.

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Elsewhere in the field, Icelady – who will have Melbourne Cup-winning jockey Ethan Brown on board – looms as another threat backing up from the Wakeful, while the winner of last Saturday’s lead-in race is also firmly in the mix.

“She did a good job, I think she was entitled to drop off a little bit and held on for third, so I think the run has a lot of merit and I don’t have any reason to doubt her at the trip over 2500m,” Gately said of the Ciaron Maher-trained runner.

“De Armas won that race and did a bit wrong, so there’s still upside with her. I think the bigger track was the key ... she’s a work in progress, but I think the talent is there to say she will be competitive though.”

Gately pointed to Quick Finish as another hope after running in the Victoria Derby, while labelling Refuse To Curtsy a “fascinating” rough hope.

Elsewhere on the Thursday card at Flemington, Gately is tipping Sequinned ($1.85) to win the Group 3 Red Rose Stakes.

Here’s every runner competing in the Oaks. Odds courtesy of TAB, correct at 1.30pm (AEDT) Wednesday, November 4.

1. Proxima Dea (18)

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: David Payne

Jockey: Zac Lloyd

Career: 5-5-0

Last start: Won G1 Spring Champion Stakes (Randwick, October 24)

Odds: $2.30

2. Icelady (4)

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Ethan Brown

Career: 7-1-5

Last start: 3rd in G2 Wakeful Stakes (Flemington, October 31)

Odds: $8

3. Quick Finish (5)

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: T & C McEvoy

Jockey: Jye McNeil

Career: 5-3-1

Last start: 3rd in G1 Victoria Derby (Flemington, October 31)

Odds: $13

4. De Armas (1)

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: James McDonald

Career: 7-3-1

Last start: Won G2 Wakeful Stakes (Flemington, October 31)

Odds: $3

5. Voynichese (6)

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: Nick Olive

Jockey: Declan Bates

Career: 8-2-1

Last start: 7th in G2 Wakeful Stakes (Flemington, October 31)

Odds: $71

6. Salann (11)

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: Ben Brisbourne

Jockey: Rachel King

Career: 6-0-3

Last start: 3rd in G2 Moonee Valley Vase (Flemington, October 24)

Odds: $41

7. Churchill Rose (9)

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: Andrew Gluyas

Jockey: Craig Williams

Career: 8-1-3

Last start: 4th in G2 Wakeful Stakes (Flemington)

Odds: $41

8. Your Colour (13)

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Blake Shinn

Career: 7-1-2

Last start: 11th in G2 Wakeful Stakes (Flemington, October 31)

Odds: $26

9. Joely (17)

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: T Busuttin & N Young

Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy

Career: 4-1-1

Last start: 7th in G2 Moonee Valley Vase (Flemington, October 24)

Odds: $61

10. Expensive Taste (10)

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: T & C McEvoy

Jockey: Luke Currie

Career: 9-0-5

Last start: 5th in LR Geelong Classic (Geelong, October 21)

Odds: $101

11. Notified (14)

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: Archie Alexander

Jockey: Billy Egan

Career: 6-1-1

Last start: 8th in G3 Ethereal Stakes (Caulfield, October 17)

Odds: $101

12. Refuse To Curtsy (12)

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: Thomas Carberry

Jockey: John Allen

Career: 5-1-1

Last start: 3rd in G3 Ethereal Stakes (Caulfield, October 17)

Odds: $41

13. Nikitria (15)

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: Clinton McDonald

Jockey: Ben Melham

Career: 6-1-0

Last start: 6th in G2 Wakeful Stakes (Flemington, October 31)

Odds: $101

15. Tharwa (16)

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Damian Lane

Career: 5-0-2

Last start: 9th in G2 Wakeful Stakes (Flemington, October 31)

Odds: $26

16. Shameful Impulse (7)

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: Rob Blacker

Jockey: William Pike

Career: 5-1-1

Last start: 5th in G2 Wakeful Stakes (Flemington, October 31)

Odds: $61

17. Quynh (3)

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: E & D Browne

Jockey: TBC

Career: 5-1-0

Last start: 10th in G2 Wakeful Stakes (Flemington, October 31)

Odds: $151

18. Little Ally Bama (2)

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: Andrew Bobbin

Jockey: Linda Meech

Career: 4-1-1

Last start: Won maiden race (Horsham, October 18)

Odds: $81

19. Courting (19)

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: T & C McEvoy

Jockey: TBC

Career: 4-0-3

Last start: 2nd in maiden race (Horsham, October 18)

Odds: $81

20. Chocolate Freckles (8)

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: P Carey & H Walker

Jockey: Celine Gaudray

Career: 3-0-1

Last start: 2nd in maiden race (Mornington, October 22)

Odds: $126