‘Nightmare’ scenario for team with most to lose in AFL’s wildcard chaos
The AFL’s shiny new Wildcard Round is upon us, with the Western Bulldogs versus Collingwood and Melbourne versus Carlton this weekend to determine who makes the top eight and who heads into the off-season.
The league is projecting crowds of around 90,000 for both MCG games and will certainly feel they have had some luck with the match-ups.
Max Gawn of the Demons addresses his team. AFL Photos via Getty Images
For Collingwood and Carlton, who finished ninth and 10th respectively, they have been granted the ultimate lifeline to keep their hopes alive.
The Blues will be sensing some déjà vu in all of this. Back in 2013, they finished ninth and were vaulted into finals after Essendon was kicked out during the supplement saga. They took that opportunity and defeated Richmond in an elimination final.
For the Western Bulldogs and Melbourne, however, they will now have to fight to retain the top eight spot they have already earned.
This is a particularly hard pill to swallow for Melbourne. It has spent the entire season firmly entrenched in the top eight and knocking on the door of the top four.
In round 24, if things broke right, they could have finished as high as third and booked a double chance. Instead, the Demons lost to the Bulldogs and have plummeted into a Wildcard clash with the red-hot Blues on neutral MCG turf.
Instead of Jake Lever, Matthew Jefferson and Daniel Turner having a week off to rest injuries, the first two will not play and Turner will fight through a do-or-die game. Melbourne will also roll out former captain Jack Viney for the first time this season after just one VFL game. He has battled Achilles and back injuries all season.
For the Dees, this is a borderline nightmare. In any other year, they would have been heading to Adelaide to take on a beatable Crows side in an elimination final. Now, they have to beat Carlton just to get that opportunity.
The Bulldogs are similarly unlucky. They have battled the loss of key players to injury all season, but found a way to stay competitive. They hit their stride in the final fortnight of the season, drawing with Carlton and then beating Melbourne.
Getting the results required against the teams around them on the ladder, they earned their spot in the top eight and a chance to face Geelong in an elimination final.
Instead of that, they will have to fight through a veteran Collingwood side that has played in dozens of finals over the years. On top of that, it is effectively a Magpies home game on the MCG, rather than being under the roof at Marvel Stadium.
It’s fair to say the Bulldogs will have a chip on their shoulder this week.
Whether it’s the AFL boss himself taking a shot at midfielder Ed Richards daring to suggest Wildcards shouldn’t count as finals or their frustration with Collingwood being granted the opportunity to train on Marvel Stadium this week when they have been denied that very request numerous times, they won’t be lacking motivation on Friday night.
Collingwood is feeling the pressure as well. They have the oldest list in the competition and have cashed in first round picks in recent years to keep their premiership window alive.
Those gambles have resulted in finishing ninth, but the existential questions surrounding where they go from here have been delayed by at least a week thanks to the implementation of Wildcard Round.
Carlton, who started the season 1-8 and changed coaches, are playing with house money. They bring excellent form and list health into the post-season and will have a red-hot crack at toppling a wounded Melbourne.
They have lost two games in three months and will feel anything is possible in this finals series. However, if it goes wrong and they are knocked out, new coach Josh Fraser can begin his first summer with the group still with a ton of momentum.
The AFL will be sleeping happy regardless of who wins. They’ll have two packed MCG crowds, huge ratings and high stakes games on a weekend that otherwise would have been empty of men’s footy.
They will likely deem Wildcard Round a success purely on those metrics.
Though, they may struggle to get that sleep if the Dees or Dogs lose and their fans express their thoughts on the weekend’s merits.
And fair questions still linger as to whether the expansion of the finals series was the right move for the code itself.
