'Give me a break': Five teams AFL great believes can win the flag, and those he's ruled out

Collingwood premiership captain Tony Shaw has named the five teams he believes can win the premiership, a third of the way through the AFL season.

Naturally, reigning premiers Brisbane make the list - though runners up Sydney do not.

Shaw is backing in the experienced sides, while putting a line through upstarts like Gold Coast and Adelaide.

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"I think Brisbane can win the premiership," Shaw told 3AW.

"I think GWS can at their best, but they do have lulls in quarters periodically.

"Geelong can still do it because they're going to qualify high because they have so many (games in Geelong). At their best they can beat anybody.

"Collingwood, of course. And I still think Hawthorn can.

"I thought (Easter Monday) was high class, finals like atmosphere and they learned a lot from that and they had an outlier the week before that. It's those five.

"I don't think Adelaide can win it. I reckon the Western Bulldogs have been fantastic, losing Sam Darcy will be hard to overcome, and I don't trust Gold Coast.

"Carlton? Give me a break. And the Swans, I don't think so."

Essendon champion Matthew Lloyd agrees with Shaw's five teams, but expects another team to emerge as the season progresses.

"I'd go along with that. It wouldn't surprise me if there's a bolter, whether it's Adelaide or Gold Coast, it wouldn't surprise me if they're in a preliminary final," Lloyd said.

"There's always a team that comes up to potentially challenge."