How Tassie snap election blows up Devils' stadium timeline and costs the state $9m as new plan projected

Tasmania is in all likelihood heading for its fourth state election in just seven years, a decision that has enormous ramifications for the Devils and their hopes of entering the AFL competition.

And the decision will likely cost the state $9m, as we will explain.

Under premier Jeremy Rockliff, the Tasmanian state government was set to vote on planning approval for the stadium at Macquarie Point towards the end of July, and while that was not a sure-thing, it would have served as the catalyst that allowed things to finally get moving.

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Now, the Devils have been thrust back into political quagmire of the Apple Isle, as the state once again heads to the polls.

The original hope for the AFL and the Devils was that this stadium would be built in time for the 2029 season, with shovels in the ground some time in 2026.

Now, that timeline appears impossible to meet on numerous fronts.

It's worth remembering that this provisional AFL licence granted to Tasmania is entirely contingent on a 23,000 seat roofed stadium at Macquarie Point, built in time for the 2029 season.

The Tasmanian Nationals have put their hat in the race for this state election saying they support the team, but are anti stadium.

But no stadium means no team. The AFL has been crystal clear on that and there's yet to be any ground given on that front. They would need approval from all 18 club presidents, something that simply won't happen.

So, instead of potentially getting the ball rolling on the stadium at the end of July, now the earliest a state election can be called is July 12.

This date already falls outside of the agreed upon June 30 deadline for planning and environmental approvals regarding the stadium, something that now seems well on the backburner.

That is just the first of the contractual timelines that will be blown up. The state government will need to pay the Devils $4.5m if the stadium is not 50 per cent complete by October 2027. And another $4.5m if the team can't host games in it by the 2029 season.

It doesn't take a psychic to foresee the $9m coming the upstart team's way, given the delays.

The AFL is able to ask the government to continue top-up payments for the team if delays continue beyond that as well.

Once the election happens in July, the issue is then the formation of the new government. It remains unlikely that either party will be able to form a majority.

This means the winner will have to make deals and agreements with The Greens and crossbenchers in order to form any kind of minority government, putting us back where we were pre-election.

The only issue is the majority of Greens and crossbenchers do not support the stadium, and now they have more leverage against it.

Whatever happens in the election, the new-look state government will be right back in the position it is now - needing to vote on whether the stadium comes to be, and whether they can fast-track the process.

Given the deals that will need to be made to form any sort of minority government, it's hard to imagine that vote taking place any time in the immediate aftermath of the election. They, obviously, have other priorities.

Assuming the best case scenario for the AFL and the stadium gets approval at some stage in the back-half of 2025, it's hard to imagine any ground being broken in 2026.

And all original timelines by that point will have to have been renegotiated. The AFL will be more than happy to do so if they know the stadium is on its way, even if it is falling years behind schedule.

The question for the AFL is whether they delay the current planned entry for the team in 2028, and push it back to meet the stadium's new timeline.

The whole idea of the new stadium is to ensure the team isn't based out of Bellerive Oval and York Park, with the existing clubs in agreement that neither is suitable to house an AFL side. But if they enter in 2028, they might find themselves there for multiple seasons.

All of this will be an enormous headache for Devils chief Brendon Gale and the staff already on board, who now have no certainty surrounding their future employment.

And remember, that was the best case scenario.

There's always the chance the new government is formed on an anti-stadium platform.

And no stadium, as will be repeated ad-nauseam, means the Tassie AFL dream is over.