Suns must 'walk home' if 'nervous' loss occurs as 'all-or-nothing' round 24 games ranked and stakes revealed

Former Collingwood president Eddie McGuire believes Gold Coast should be made to "walk home" if they lose to Port Adelaide on Friday night.

The Suns need to win one of their two round 24 games to make the eight, but a loss to the Power would leave them sweating out the final game of the season against Essendon, and cost them a top four spot.

The final round of the AFL season is upon us and every single spot in the top eight is still up for grabs, making for a wild conclusion.

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Nine teams are jostling for eight spots, the minor premiership is yet to be fully determined and crucial finals matchups will fall into place.

Due to the rescheduled Opening Round clash between Gold Coast and Essendon, there will be 10 games of footy in round 24, spanning over nine days.

So from 10th up to first, we've ranked every game in round 24 from least to most important, and explained what is at stake.

McGuire and Geelong great Jimmy Bartel have gone through each game and made their predictions:

10th: West Coast versus Sydney

Funnily enough, the two teams completely locked into their spots on the ladder will play each other in round 24.

The Eagles have had the wooden spoon sewn up for a month now and the Swans are locked into 10th, as the best team not in the finals hunt this year.

No injuries and no silly suspensions, please. Everyone get through this one without commotion and then maybe the Swans boys can enjoy some West Australian sun for a few days before heading into the off-season.

McGuire: "West Coast is no good, and Sydney is angry."

Bartel: "This could get ugly."

9th: Essendon versus Carlton

Equally with nothing to play for, but this time in primetime on Thursday night, Essendon and Carlton will also be hoping to get through with no injuries and potentially some positivity going into summer.

The Bombers have lost 11 straight games dating back to May, so a win would certainly go a long way for them.

Carlton will celebrate Tom De Koning's 100th game ... that won't be awkward at all. At least he's father-son eligible for them now.

McGuire: "I hope with all my might that Essendon and Carlton supporters come and fill this joint. Wouldn't it be good to flex their muscles and show what it's all about? If they got 75,000? I hope they can."

Bartel: "I've got Carlton winning by 13 points."

8th: North Melbourne versus Adelaide

Win, and Adelaide is the minor premier for the 2025 season, completing their remarkable rise from the bottom four last season.

Lose, and the Crows will finish second, and still host a qualifying final.

This one is nice and simple.

Bartel: "It'll be interesting to see where Adelaide's head is at now that they've got a locked in top two spot. I still think they win. You'd be surprised how many players in the last quarter they'll go 'I don't want to get injured'."

7th: Richmond versus Geelong

A win for Geelong guarantees them a home qualifying final, likely against a non-Victorian team, granting them a big advantage.

A shock loss to the Tigers however could see them slip to third if Brisbane beats Hawthorn, forcing them up to Queensland.

There's also the possibility that they can steal the minor premiership, if Adelaide loses to North Melbourne unexpectedly.

McGuire: "Geelong has had a really, really good campaign I reckon. They've almost played games where they've had extended practices and they're tuning themselves up beautifully. Geelong by 72 points."

Bartel: "Richmond's experienced boys were a bit average and now Vlastuin's broken his leg. 41 points, the Cats."

6th: GWS versus St Kilda

The Giants, thanks to their healthy percentage, are locked into the eight. Even a 60-point loss to St Kilda here would still see them slide into eighth. This is because they got the job done against Gold Coast in round 23.

Lose to the Saints and GWS will finish eighth. A win will see them finish fifth or sixth and host an elimination final. They'd need an absolute domination to jump Gold Coast and Collingwood percentage wise to bust into the top four.

And if the Saints win, that would be five in a row for them going into summer.

Bartel: "Giants by three points. What St Kilda does well is they take the game away from you. Still quite a few out for GWS."

5th: Collingwood versus Melbourne

It's going to come down to percentage, but a win for Collingwood will give them the chance to squeeze into the top four and undo some of the damage of their recent form slump.

However, Gold Coast will have the chance to overtake them on the final day of the season, meaning they're more likely to finish fifth.

A loss could see the Magpies tumble all the way to eighth, and give Melbourne interim coach Troy Chaplin something to remember his three-game coaching career by.

The Pies need a percentage boosting victory to dodge an elimination final.

McGuire: "I think Melbourne will be up for this one. They'll have a good go. It'll be a fair dinkum game and if the Pies think they can just rest going into this one, they'll find themselves in big trouble."

Bartel: "They won't get within four goals of Collingwood. Pies by 32 points."

4th: Port Adelaide versus Gold Coast

Unlike Essendon, Gold Coast playing twice in round 24 matters. And big time. They will enter the weekend in ninth spot, but every chance to finish in fourth if they win both games.

To do that, they must first head to South Australia and beat Port Adelaide. The Power have been in shocking form, but this will be Ken Hinkley and Travis Boak's farewell game and that could light a fire underneath them.

If Gold Coast lose here, they will need to beat Essendon to make the eight, setting up a do-or-die conclusion to the season. A loss to Port will also mean the Suns can only finish as high as seventh if they beat the Bombers.

It will be a nervy few days for a team that has never made the eight if they stumble first-up. A win guarantees them maiden September action.

McGuire: "Could Port Adelaide pull one out for Hinkley? If Gold Coast loses against Port Adelaide, they should be made to walk home. Suns win by 30 points."

Bartel: "Gold Coast has to win, but I reckon they're going to be nervous. Gold Coast by eight points."

3rd: Gold Coast versus Essendon

As mentioned, if Gold Coast loses to Port Adelaide, then they must beat Essendon in the final game of the season to make the eight. Given the Bombers will have absolutely nothing to play for, and potentially a few days at Surfer's Paradise afterwards to enjoy, it's hard to imagine the worst case scenario actually occurring.

But it remains possible that the Suns double fault and miss the eight entirely.

Of course, it's far more likely they beat the Power and the Bombers. In that case, they will need to do so by enough to jump Collingwood on percentage (assuming they beat Melbourne) in order to finish fourth.

The good thing about playing last is the Suns will know exactly what they need score wise to accomplish that, and it's hard to imagine Essendon putting up too much resistance.

To summarise: Win twice; finish fourth or fifth. Win once; finish seventh. Lose both; finish ninth. Ball is in their court.

McGuire: "Gold Coast will win comfortably."

2nd: Brisbane versus Hawthorn

Both teams are locked into the eight, but this is one of two games in round 24 where two top nine sides will face each other.

A Hawthorn win would grant them a home elimination final, and well deserved given how hard they have fought to make the eight in recent weeks.

Brisbane wins and they finish third and earn a double chance. They can jump as high as second, if Geelong stumbles.

The loser of this one is playing an elimination final on the road. Only one premiership has been won from that spot in the AFL era (Dogs, 2016). So it's fair to say that premiership hopes start with a win at the Gabba on Sunday evening.

McGuire: "I'm going to say Hawthorn by two goals."

Bartel: "Jarrod Berry out, Lachie Neale's still out. I'm going Hawthorn by 13 points."

1st: Western Bulldogs versus Fremantle

Did you know that in two of the last three seasons, the top eight has been determined by a game featuring the Bulldogs or Fremantle on the final weekend of the home-and-away season?

In 2024, a Fremantle loss to Port Adelaide saw them miss the eight, and allowed Carlton to sneak in. In 2022, a Bulldogs win over Hawthorn handed them a finals spot, and coincidentally, kicked Carlton out.

This will make it a third time in four years, and features both of those teams (but not Carlton).

There's no fancy analysis needed here. Assuming Gold Coast beats one of Port Adelaide or Essendon: the winner of this game makes the eight. The loser does not. This is the ultimate do-or-die, win-and-in, all-or-nothing, feast-or-famine battle.

Whoever wins can still finish as high as fourth if results go their way, but will likely finish between sixth and eighth.

This is because they boast the best percentage outside of the top two teams.

The loser of this game will become the first team to ever miss the eight with 15 wins, which isn't a great consolation prize. The winner stays alive.

Under the roof at Marvel Stadium, there'll be no excuses.

McGuire: "I'm saying Dogs by 12 points."

Bartel: "This will be a thriller. Dogs by one point. It'll be drama filled."