Lions coaching call could be Buckley’s make-or-break moment
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Nathan Buckley’s hopes of returning to the AFL coaching ranks may sit solely in the hands of the Brisbane Lions.
While nothing is certain, the AFL industry is clearly creeping away from second-time coaches and favouring the young upstart assistants in the pool, a trend that has evolved across the 2020s.
Nathan Buckley, Geelong assistant coach. Getty Images
Buckley is set to formally present to the Brisbane selection panel, helmed by club director and premiership coach Leigh Matthews and Brownlow Medallist Simon Black, following Chris Fagan’s decision to leave the club.
The former Collingwood coach served as an assistant at Geelong in 2026 under Chris Scott and will return in 2027 if he does not get the Lions job.
He applied to become the inaugural Tassie Devils coach and also threw his hat in the ring for the top jobs at Melbourne and North Melbourne.
Buckley only narrowly missed out on the Demons role to Steven King, while he pulled out of the Roos race early.
Both King and new North Melbourne coach Jaymie Graham perfectly fit the mould of long-time assistant coaches who have done apprenticeships at strong clubs and sit at the forefront of the game’s tactical evolution.
This appears to be the ideal candidate for an AFL head coach vacancy nowadays, where it once was a proven, experienced coach with a history of success.
The big one for Buckley was Tassie, where he was all-in for multiple years and seen as the early frontrunner.
However, that role landed with ex Power coach Ken Hinkley, who emerged as the top candidate across 2026.
Brisbane legend Jason Akermanis believes the Lions would be better off going with long-time assistant coach Cameron Bruce over Buckley for similar reasons to the Melbourne and North Melbourne situations.
Given the success the team had under Fagan, Akermanis believes Bruce is best placed to keep the momentum going in 2027.
“Cameron Bruce is the guy (to replace Fagan) – he’s always been the guy,” Akermanis said.
“I don’t know why they’re playing ducks and drakes. I’m not saying that ‘Bucks’ wouldn’t suit the Lions, I just don’t think he’s needed.
“They’ve got their coach. He’s been sitting there for years, the players know him, so you safely go to Cameron Bruce.
“I don’t even know why they are wasting their time. You don’t need ‘Bucks’. They are not at all going to hire anyone else (apart from Bruce), in my opinion.”
Buckley not getting the Brisbane job would be his fourth miss since the end of 2025, though he deserves credit for having the courage to chase what he wants.
Nathan Buckley before the 2018 grand final. Getty Images
He stepped down as Collingwood coach in the middle of 2021 and worked in the media for a number of years before feeling ready to go all-in on coaching once again.
During his time in the media, the 54-year-old would often speak of how he was enjoying his break, but still had the itch to return.
Buckley joined the Cats in 2026 as part of gearing himself back up for a head coaching role, likely thought to be Tassie at the time, and is clearly willing to continue doing so in 2027.
Many have compared his situation to James Hird, who has also had a lengthy stint out of the game, but attempted to win the Essendon role in 2026.
However, Buckley’s gap was just five years, as opposed to 10, and he has shown his commitment with the Geelong role, which has thrown him back into the fires of clubland.
The Collingwood legend was only minutes away from lifting the premiership cup in 2018, before West Coast’s stunning comeback snatched that hope away from him.
But as time continues to pass, his odds of getting back into a top role and pursuing an elusive premiership continue to fade.
Ken Hinkley, the coach of Tassie. Getty Images
This is because AFL clubs are growing less fond of hiring second-time coaches, particularly as the gap between their jobs grows.
Part of that is the fact that only Leigh Matthews (Collingwood and Brisbane) and Mick Malthouse (West Coast and Collingwood) have won premierships at multiple clubs in the AFL era. Buckley, coincidentally, was coached by both.
No matter how well credentialled a second-time coach has been across the AFL era, they have all fallen short of premiership success at their second (or third) home, bar two of the greatest to ever do it.
Hinkley and the Devils feel like an outlier to the existing trend. The veteran coach was just one year removed from his Port Adelaide exit, which was a controversial one given his consistent success with the club.
On top of that, Tassie was always looking for an experienced coach to both market the club and develop what will be a very young list.
Beyond Hinkley, the previous experienced coaches to win jobs were Damien Hardwick at Gold Coast, Alastair Clarkson at North Melbourne, Brad Scott at Essendon and Ross Lyon at St Kilda.
Clarkson and Hardwick were both multi-time premiership coaches, while Scott and Lyon also had successful runs in their first stints.
Alastair Clarkson was brutally axed by North Melbourne with a year to run on his contract. Getty Images
Hardwick was ripped out of Richmond and placed on the Gold Coast effectively by the AFL, Lyon returned to St Kilda as the saviour and hasn’t yet moved them anywhere, Scott was sacked by Essendon mid-2026 and Clarkson, a four-time premiership coach, was unceremoniously sacked recently.
The struggles of these four, particularly Hardwick and Clarkson, may be fuelling the trend away from second-time coaches as much as anything else, though the growing tactical complexity of the sport is another factor.
There’s also something to be said about the additional pressure a higher profile coach brings, compared to hiring a Craig McRae or an Andrew McQualter. Inherently, expectations start slightly lower than if you unveil Mick Malthouse like Carlton did in 2012, or Clarkson’s early days at the Kangaroos.
North Melbourne made it clear early in their process to replace the four-time premiership winner that they were looking for a first-time coach, despite club premiership heroes Adam Simpson and John Longmire potentially being available, as well as Buckley.
Even at Collingwood, Buckley was replaced by understated then-Richmond assistant coach Craig McRae – a surprisingly low profile hiring by the biggest club in the land, which has worked swimmingly and led to the 2023 premiership.
Contrast that to Carlton, who one year later gave Michael Voss a second chance as senior coach, after his stint at Brisbane, and always felt one step behind the best teams tactically, despite a strong list.
Hawthorn’s brutal call to move on from Clarkson and appoint Sam Mitchell, Melbourne’s decision to pick King over Buckley, Carlton replacing Voss with Josh Fraser and Essendon choosing Mark McVeigh over Hird are all examples of the game moving away from these experienced heads and towards the next generation.
Brisbane assistant coach Cameron Bruce. Getty
There’s no doubt Carlton in particular would have backed up a dump truck of cash to Longmire or Simpson in a previous era, rather than going with the long-time untried assistant coach in Fraser.
None of this works in Buckley’s favour as he attempts to return to an industry moving in a different direction.
Melbourne’s immediate success under King in 2026 validated their call not only to pick him, but to move on from Simon Goodwin, which is not to say they wouldn’t have also made a jump under Buckley’s watch, of course.
Having said that, there are always outlier jobs. Tassie was one, and Brisbane may just be another.
The Lions coaching vacancy might just be the most appealing of all-time, alongside Mark Thompson’s departure at Geelong in 2010. You’re picking up the best list in the competition and a blueprint for sustained success.
Having won three premierships in a row, the steady, experienced hand of Buckley may be precisely what they’re after, as opposed to the Kangaroos and Demons, who were looking for a complete tactical revamp.
These outlier jobs will always bob up. Adelaide may be in a similar boat in 12 months if they move on from Matthew Nicks. Geelong would present a similar proposition, if Chris Scott decides 17 years as a head coach is more than enough for him.
But on the whole, fairly or unfairly, the AFL coaching pipeline continues to move away from Buckley – and the irony is his departure from Collingwood and McRae’s success likely sits as the blueprint rival clubs are now chasing.
