Dry, warm summer forecast as El Niño strengthens

A warm summer and less rain than normal could be on the way for millions of Aussies.

El Niño will continue to strengthen in the coming months, increasing the potential for reduced rain and warmer-than-average temperatures across Australia’s eastern states, experts say.

The climate pattern typically means reduced rainfall, warmer temperatures, a shift in temperature extremes, reduced tropical cyclone numbers, increased fire danger in parts of the country and decreased alpine snow depths.

The Bureau of Meteorology released its long-range forecast for August to October, confirming El Niño.

The modelling shows the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which refers to the year-to-year changes of tropical sea temperatures in the western and eastern Indian Ocean, remains neutral.

The IOD can alter the weather patterns that affect Australia’s rainfall.

The climate indicator varies from three phases including negative, neutral and positive generally every three to five years.

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The long-range report predicts a positive IOD may still develop in winter.

Senior hydrologist Dr Paul Feikema said fire season has started in northern Australia.

“High wet season rainfall has boosted vegetation growth adding to fuel loads,” Dr Feikema said.

“Soil moisture remains average to above average across large parts of the country, particularly across the interior and South Australia.

“Compared with last month, drier soils are now more widespread in the east and parts of the west.”

The country is likely to see below-average rainfall across eastern and southern Australia as well as parts of the north.

“Rainfall for August to October is likely to be below average across much of eastern and southern Australia, and parts of the north,” Dr Feikema said.

“In contrast, rainfall is likely to be above average in the north-west, extending into parts of the interior.

“There’s an increased chance of unusually low rainfall for parts of the south-west and south-east.

“For these regions, while rainfall is very likely to be below average, seasonal totals are forecast to reach at least 25mm in most inland areas and at least 100mm in most alpine and coastal regions.”

Warmer-than-average days and nights are expected across most of the country.

“Daytime temperatures for August to October are very likely to be above average across most of the country, except for parts of the far north,” Dr Feikema said.

“Nights are also likely to be warmer than average in most parts.

“Despite the warm forecast, late season frosts remain possible under clear skies and where soils are dry.”