How a byelection out west could cause ‘shockwaves’ in Canberra

The Perth electorate of Secret Harbour may be 3700km from Canberra, but the federal parties will be watching the Western Australian state byelection closely on Saturday for a political earthquake.

Polls are now open in the previously safe Labor seat, and One Nation and the two major parties are seriously contesting.

While the minor party’s electoral successes this year have come at the expense of the embattled Liberals, Labor may feel the pain this time.

“My guess is that One Nation will finish second on primary votes but get there on a solid flow of Liberal preferences,” political journalist and ANU professor Mark Kenny told nine.com.au.

If that happens, he said the federal Liberal and Labor branches would try to explain away a win for One Nation and its candidate Luke Herdegen – a gym owner who has previously spoken of his cocaine use – but believed the impact would be felt far and wide.

“They’ll be madly spinning that it was a state seat with its own local issues, but a win for One Nation will send shockwaves through both parties,” he said.

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Labor holds a massive state majority and the Albanese government has a near-stranglehold on federal seats in Perth, but defeat would send a concerning message.

“It would demonstrate, as did the South Australian state election, that Labor is actually quite exposed in its working class, suburban-regional heartland, to the nostalgic allure of ‘Hansonism’ in these economically difficult times,” Kenny said.

The seat occupies suburban Perth between Rockingham and Mandurah, the type of area that traditionally backs Labor, but could swing towards One Nation.

The government has been campaigning heavily, with former political adviser Georgia Tree hoping to retain the seat vacated by Paul Papalia.

Labor has tied One Nation’s campaign to controversial remarks made by federal leader Pauline Hanson, including on domestic violence and the superannuation system.

Josh Sunman from Flinders University said the latter attack was carefully cultivated to appeal to the part of the electorate targeted by One Nation.

“Labor are really trying to focus their messaging on Pauline Hanson being against workers’ rights,” he told nine.com.au. 

“This is the messaging they’re trying to take forward to the electorate to win back some of that core support that they maybe feel like they’re vulnerable to losing.”

Sunman said One Nation would focus on federal issues, including immigration and the cost of living.

Kenny and Sunman agree Liberal candidate Ryan Robertson is little chance of winning the seat.

The fact One Nation is a serious chance in a seat that, before last year’s state election, was held by Labor on a 31.3 per cent majority, shows Australia’s political climate is shifting.

Kenny said another victory for One Nation after their success in the eastern states would prove the major parties’ strategies are falling short.

“This is his positioning in him being so vocal about it, is absolutely him trying to position himself as a future leader who has a different take and a different strategy.”

“Hanson’s cheap populism is contrary to Australian egalitarian values, divisive, and… her solutions are ultimately counterfeit,” Kenny said.

“But the parties must also realise that One Nation has sold its simple narrative well.

“If they are to meet the populist challenge, they must find the compelling human stories to animate their plans for the country – not talk in abstracts like debt and deficit or spending cuts.”

Liberal leadership hopeful in the firing line

It’s not just Labor who will be sweating on the result of the Secret Harbour byelection.

A One Nation victory could hold an ominous warning for Liberal frontbencher and potential future leadership aspirant Andrew Hastie.

His federal seat of Canning encompasses Secret Harbour, and he has sounded the alarm on the danger he says One Nation poses.

This has put him in conflict with state party leader Basil Zempilas, who suggested a loss of any kind for Labor would still be a win for the Liberals.

Kenny said Hastie’s view is informed by the minor party’s personal criticism of him in light of his testimony against Ben Roberts-Smith, a former Victoria Cross winner who has been accused of war crimes.

Roberts-Smith, who denies the allegations against him, grew up in Perth and has support from One Nation supporters and Hanson.

“He [Hastie] is vulnerable,” Kenny said.

Associate Professor Jill Sheppard said Hastie had, rightly or wrongly, put a target on his back, and believes a One Nation win in Secret Harbour would be proof voters are willing to overlook some of the party’s more controversial positions.

“Andrew Hastie has... made himself a lightning rod for supporters of Ben Roberts-Smith,” they told nine.com.au.

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“A One Nation victory in Secret Harbour would indicate that WA voters are willing to overlook the party’s support for Ben Roberts-Smith, and that Hastie cannot necessarily rely on his stance to win him support.”

Sunman said polling done around the country suggests One Nation is “breathing down his neck”, but believes Hastie’s hard line against Hanson has more to do with his desire to lead the Liberal Party.

“Hastie sees One Nation [as] an existential threat to the Liberal Party, the major party of the right in Australia, and sees that they need to position hard against them and not worry about offending them in some ways,” Sunman said, contrasting him with Zempilas and federal Opposition Leader Angus Taylor.

“He’s out there offering a different alternative to try and sharpen his pitch and his credentials if Angus Taylor fails to pull the party out of his current doldrums.”