Taiwan crisis a bind for Australia

For Australia, about the most difficult military crisis would be a conflict between China, Taiwan and the US.

It would force Australia to choose between our biggest trading partner and our closest ally.

So just how likely is a conflict across the Taiwan Strait, long regarded as one of East Asia's most dangerous flashpoints?

A new Australian Strategic Policy Institute study says this will remain dangerous and Australian decision-makers need to pay close attention and consider strategic options in case tensions escalate.

That would include the core question - to what degree would the ANZUS alliance draw Australia into a Taiwan Strait crisis.

Authors Sheryn Lee and Dr Benjamin Schreer said there was a tendency in Canberra to avoid this question.

Supporting the US over Taiwan would bring us into direct conflict with China, which has warned we would face very serious consequences.

The US has long stood as security guarantor for Taiwan, an island claimed by China since 1949 when it was taken by nationalist forces at the close of the Chinese Civil War.

Like most nations, Australia doesn't diplomatically recognise Taiwan but it remains a major trading partner.

The ANZUS alliance doesn't automatically bind Australia to side with the US in a conflict over the Taiwan Strait but analysts such as Professor Paul Dibb say an Australian refusal to side with the US would be an alliance breaker.

Ms Lee and Dr Schreer said it would be politically difficult for Australia to stay out. Australia and the US need to hold confidential discussions on mutual expectations and what Australia might be able to contribute.

"One way or another Australia needs a policy position that can be adjusted as circumstances change, rather than having to invent one in a crisis," they say.

However, conflict is far from imminent, even with the recent election victory by the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party.

Under the previous Kuomintang administration, China-Taiwan relations steadily improved. But China under President Xi Jinping has demonstrated an uncompromising approach to territorial disputes and Taiwan's status remains a core interest of Beijing.