Why same-sex disunity is death for the Liberals

Amidst all the division of the last week, one phrase actually united Coalition MPs – "Disunity is Death".

I heard it time and time again during the flurry of phone calls since the issue of same sex marriage was put back on the agenda by a group of Liberal MPs.  

The constant bickering, the private posturing and seemingly endless speculation all comes at a cost to a Government that is already working with a wafer thin majority and an electorate that is low on trust.

And yet for eight days now it’s continued.

“The plebiscite is a D-Grade response to a defining A-Grade social issue”, Senator Dean Smith said, publically criticising his party’s own policy.

Disunity is death.

“It was a shocking thing for Christoher Pyne to say”, former Prime Minister Tony Abbott said, publically criticising his party’s leader of business.

Disunity is death.

“53-47”, Newspoll said, for the sixth consecutive time.

Disunity is death.

That’s the backdrop for this afternoon’s Liberal party meeting and it’s hard to see any solution that unifies the party.

If a free vote is the outcome, the conservative cohort will be angry, the Liberal party base will feel betrayed and another election commitment will be broken.

If the party chooses to stick with the plebiscite, it knows full well the Senate won't support it.

If a postal plebiscite is chosen (as appears most likely) tax payers will be forking out $30 million for a vote that isn’t compulsory, isn’t binding and isn’t likely to be a factor when MPs eventually have a vote in the Parliament. All it does is allow Malcolm Turnbull to move forward – it’s a big financial cost and only guarantees the issue bubbles along for the coming months.

It’s unlikely this will be an issue that causes a spill, but it’s not impossible and in the 45^th Parliament that should be a real concern for the Prime Minister.

Conservatives are angry and moderate cabinet ministers are frustrated they can’t get clean air and the Nationals are furious the Liberals are back focusing on this issue and not the bread and butter Coalition strengths of economic and national security.

MPs know disunity is death, Mr Turnbull does too, and the Coalition has been splintered publically now for oh so long.