Post-Easter poll could decide Qld govt

Queensland's political uncertainty looks set to continue as a government-deciding by-election is not expected until after Easter.

With final postal votes still trickling in, Labor is creeping closer to claiming the 44 seats it needs to form a minority government with the support of independent Peter Wellington.

Labor's candidate in the knife-edge electorate of Ferny Grove, Mark Furner, pulled ahead of LNP incumbent Dale Shuttleworth by 479 votes late on Friday to all but give his party its 43rd seat.

Would-be premier Annastacia Palaszczuk is hoping, with four seats still doubt, that Maryborough will give her No.44. Labor's Bruce Saunders is in a ding-dong battle with independent Chris Foley, who is expected to gain the flow of preferences.

Even if that goes Labor's way - and Whitsunday, Mount Ommaney and Lockyer stay with the LNP as expected - long-term government is set to rely on victory in a by-election in Ferny Grove.

A Supreme Court judge will be given the power to decide whether a by-election is held, with the LNP indicating it will challenge the result in the Court of Disputed Returns.

The post-election disqualification of Palmer United Party candidate Mark Taverner due to being an undischarged bankrupt is set to result in Ferny Grove's voters heading back to the polls.

Electoral analyst and QUT Professor Clive Bean tipped Ferny Grove could determine government, just as the Townsville seat of Mundingburra did in early 1996, when the coalition won a by-election to end the Goss Labor government.

While it took more than six months to hold the Mundingburra by-election, Prof Bean said the instability in Queensland would ensure things moved quicker in Ferny Grove.

"We're looking at mid-April," he told AAP.

"It would be a surprise if they let it drag out a lot longer than that."

Prof Bean tipped Labor would win a by-election to "endorse the tide" that overwhelmed the Newman government last Saturday.

"But you can never be sure," he said. "Ferny Grove may think that the state as a whole never meant to boot the government out of office."