Poll may bring end to tasmanian trio 20160701 p5uic5.html – Breaking News & Latest Updates 2026
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Poll may bring end to Tasmanian trio

AAP

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The Three Amigos are best known as a comedy routine but Tasmania's self-titled political namesakes might not be laughing after the votes are counted.

Boasting a stranglehold over the island state's north since 2013, Liberal MPs Andrew Nikolic, Brett Whiteley and Eric Hutchinson gave themselves the moniker as they claimed to be a united front in Canberra, fighting for their struggling electorates.

But if polls are to be believed, the trio might be destined for the has-been list.

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Having snatched the seat of Lyons three years ago with a 13.5 per swing, first-termer Mr Hutchinson is the most likely departure, with Labor contender Brian Mitchell backed to overcome the 1.2 per cent margin needed for victory.

The latest ReachTEL poll handed Mr Mitchell a 55-45 two-party preferred lead in the state's geographically largest division where 76,657 people are eligible to vote on Saturday.

The polling is also borderline in Braddon and Bass where ReachTEL put the Libs 50-50 with Labor on a two-party preferred basis.

The latest polling was conducted before the coalition's mirror promise of Labor's $150 million pledge to relocate the University of Tasmania's northern campus to Launceston.

It's a big issue for the northern city and may sway voters considering a No.1 in ALP's box, to instead back the coalition.

Analyst Kevin Bonham said there was a lack of quality polling in Tasmania and the field was relatively wide open ahead of Saturday.

"With the national swing estimated at 2.7 per cent, my projections favoured one or two Liberal losses (in Tasmania), with a possibility of all three seats falling," he said.

In an attempt to secure the northern seats, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Labor leader Bill Shorten have made repeat appearances.

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Down south the forecast outcomes are firmer and a return of incumbents is most likely in Denison and Franklin where independent Andrew Wilkie - protected by a 15.5 per cent margin - and Labor's Julie Collins respectively should hold their divisions.

Tasmania's senate ballot also presents an interesting battle with major party factions playing a part in the demotion of experienced players.

For the Liberals Tasmania's only federal minister, Richard Colbeck, has been dropped to fifth on the party ticket. His return to office is considered possible at best.

Labor has relegated popular Senator Lisa Singh to sixth, from where she will need voters to go below the line and mark her as their No.1 for any chance to keep her spot.

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Dr Bonham is predicting the major parties will secure four senate spots each, with the Greens keeping two, while outspoken independent Jacqui Lambie will easily meet one quota, or maybe two.

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