‘Like a wave crashing’: The key seats that could fall to One Nation at the next election

One Nation has translated its popularity into success in each electoral test thrown at it so far this year, proving to Canberra that it will disrupt the next federal election.

The party is revelling in its most recent win at the Secret Harbour byelection last weekend after stealing a seat from Labor for the first time.

This feat is considered significant despite byelections often being written off as a protest vote with few ramifications for federal elections.

One Nation has now set its sights on the Victorian election in November and the NSW election in March ahead of the federal contest in 2028, where it has pledged to run a candidate in each of the 150 seats across the country.

An Australian Financial Review/RedBridge/Accent poll in May found Labor would retain a majority government and One Nation would form opposition, with about 62 seats predicted to change hands.

However, recent polls suggest One Nation’s vote is faltering following a string of controversial remarks Hanson has been forced to walk back.

While the country is still about 18 months out from the next federal election, analyst William Bowe said Labor appears to be in a position where it could win.

“I think Labor can win the big cities and win the election that way,” he said.

“How much do Labor suffer from One Nation in all of the big cities? It’s going to look like a wave crashing in on the outer edges of the seat of the cities.

“The question is, how far in does that wave go?”

Psephologist Malcolm Mackerras believes the One Nation bubble will soon burst, likely allowing Labor to win the election.

“There are some seats that the One Nation party might take from both sides of politics, but I think you’ll find that it will be a disappointing result for One Nation,” he said.

“People won’t like the idea of a Coalition between the Liberals and One Nation.”

Here are the federal Labor and Coalition seats most at risk of the so-called orange wave.

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New South Wales

One Nation’s David Farley won former Liberal leader Sussan Ley’s seat of Farrer with a 59 per cent swing at the byelection in May, despite the party accounting for just 6.6 per cent of the primary vote at last year’s federal election.

It has upended predictions for the federal election, with experts saying a similar story could play out in surrounding regional seats.

National MP Jamie Chaffey’s seat of Parkes and National MP Michael McCormack’s Riverina could struggle to fend off One Nation.

If he remains in the lower house instead of moving back to the Senate, New England will likely remain a One Nation seat after long-serving MP Barnaby Joyce defected from the Nationals.

It is worth noting that there are reports that Farley may run as an independent MP following the next election, Mackerras said, which would take the seat out of One Nation’s hands.

Labor faces a fight to retain the mining worker-heavy regional seat of Hunter, despite One Nation candidate Stuart Bonds losing the two-party preferred vote by nearly 20 per cent to MP Dan Repacholi.

Hanson has also vowed to target Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke’s seat of Watson and Energy Minister Chris Bowen’s seat of McMahon – although the high migrant populations in the Western Sydney Labor seats could prove a challenge to the One Nation vote.

Victoria

One Nation will likely put up a fight in National MP Sam Birrell’s seat of Nicholls, National MP Anne Webster’s seat of Mallee and National MP Darren Chester’s seat of Gippsland.

Bowe, however, noted that the incumbents will have a strong advantage in that country electorates know and care who their members are.

It is why both Bowe and Mackerras believe the real trouble will come if and when a member retires, which will give way for One Nation to storm ahead.

Hanson has also singled out Housing Minister Clare O’Neil’s seat of Hotham as a target, despite One Nation receiving just 4.6 per cent of the primary vote at the last election compared to Labor’s 48.8 per cent.

“I think Labor are going to have a hard time in the edges of Melbourne,” Bowe said.

Queensland

One Nation has a home-state advantage in Queensland, with the party expanding from Brisbane into Capricornia.

It has sparked speculation that Hanson will resign from the Senate and contest the federal election as the House of Representatives candidate for Capricornia – a move that National leader Matt Canavan also appears to be eyeing.

“Canavan’s got a big problem there because there’s no such thing as a safe seat for the Coalition in regional Queensland anymore,” Bowe said.

“And being a National, that’s where he has to run. Capricornia is the obvious pick.”

The seat is currently held by Liberal National Party MP Michelle Landry, who was elected with 36.5 per cent of the primary vote and could make way for Canavan to run.

The seat of Maranoa is held by Nationals MP David Littleproud.

He stepped down from the party leadership in March after breaking apart the Coalition for the second time in under a year, but could retain his seat if he runs at the next election.

But it would be a different story for a different Nationals candidate.

“Maybe he could defend that on his personal vote but if he retires, then I would think that seat was a gimme for One Nation and they may win it,” Bowe said.

“They may win it even if he does defend it.”

One Nation also appears able to wipe out Labor’s only regional Queensland seat of Leichhardt, held by Matt Smith, and the Liberal-National seats of Dawson, Flynn and Hinkler.

Western Australia

Liberal frontbencher Andrew Hastie’s seat of Canning is being targeted by One Nation over his court evidence against disgraced soldier Ben Roberts-Smith – and he very well may be in for a fight.

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The federal electorate has significant overlap with Secret Harbour, where One Nation just claimed its first Western Australian state seat.

Federally, the Liberals had 42.5 per cent of the primary vote at the last election, while One Nation enjoyed a 6.7 per cent swing to 11.4 per cent of the vote.

But One Nation is gaining in the rural and metropolitan ends of the electorate.

“Canning has got outer metropolitan fringe areas, which are held by Labor at state level but it has also got dairy country territory in it, so it’s a mixed electorate,” Bowe said.

“One Nation is making inroads against the Liberals in the rural end, and they’re making inroads against Labor at the city end, and that’s where Secret Harbor comes in.

“Part of Canning is in Secret Harbor, and we saw that One Nation can absolutely decimate Labor in those sorts of outer metropolitan areas, which are low income or at least modest income.”

Hastie has fiercely opposed working with One Nation and in June said he would rather “get taken out in a box than bend the knee to One Nation”.

He criticised the WA Liberals’ decision to preference One Nation at the Secret Harbour byelection.

That combative attitude may help him keep his seat.

“I think that if the Liberals win Canning, they’re going to have Andrew Hastie to thank for it,” Bowe said.

The seat of Durack, held by Liberal MP Melissa Price, and O’Connor, held by Liberal Rick Wilson, are also in the firing line.

South Australia

Grey, which newly elected Liberal MP Tom Venning has only represented for a year, and Barker, where Liberal MP Tony Pasin is flirting with One Nation, could both stand to lose at the next election.

“The South Australian Liberal Party is the one that might just get up and leave and join One Nation,” Bowe said.

The results of the South Australian election in March, in which One Nation won seven MPs from the Coalition, are the clearest indicator so far of what could happen at the federal election.

“That was held under the worst possible conditions that a Liberal Party could have asked for, and they were still able to be the second-biggest party,” Mackerras said.

“I think the same will happen to a greater degree in the federal election.”