Has Pauline Hanson’s bubble finally burst? Experts warn caution
Updated . First published
Pauline Hanson’s popularity has slipped, with the One Nation leader losing her brief stint as the country’s preferred prime minister in the polls, but an expert warns that it may be temporary.
The latest Resolve poll for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age has found One Nation dropped from 29 per cent of the primary vote, which had surpassed both Labor and the Coalition, to 26 per cent.
One Nation Leader Senator Pauline Hanson’s popularity has dropped for the third straight week. Getty Images
Labor regained the lead with 28 per cent of the primary vote, while the Coalition made a slight recovery and jumped three points to 23 per cent.
The poll showed Anthony Albanese reemerged as the preferred prime minister from 29 per cent to 33 per cent, with Hanson falling eight points behind from 33 per cent to 25 per cent.
Opposition Leader Angus Taylor was once again in third place, rising from 16 per cent to 21 per cent.
If an election was held today, the Australia Institute’s chief political analyst Amy Remeikis said One Nation would still take some Coalition seats but not enough to have a major impact on parliament.
This is the third consecutive week One Nation has fallen in some polls following its sudden surge in popularity this year, which peaked at 31.5 per cent of the primary vote in the week of June 15.
Around this time, Hanson raised millions in donations in her anti-Albanese “fire the liar” campaign and gave her first address to the National Press Club in Canberra.
Resolve founder Jim Reed said Hanson’s speech at the institution last month had lost her migrant and female voters.
“The vote One Nation have gained has made the party’s base less conservative, less right-wing, so it’s no surprise that they have lost some skin after Hanson revealed some views in her National Press Club speech that not all agreed with,” he said.
“They obviously didn’t take kindly to her critique of multiculturalism, abortion rights, childcare or any number of other points.”
Remeikis agreed that the shifting support for the minor populist party is likely due to the wave of soft supporters it inherited.
“They were Coalition voters who were angry at the Coalition, went to One Nation, saw a little bit more of One Nation, and then have gone back to the Coalition,” she told nine.com.au.
“So it certainly slowed her momentum, but it also shows that a lot of One Nation’s success over the last year has been because of the collapse of the Coalition vote.”
Anthony Albanese has regained the lead in the polls. Getty Images
Reed said the poll results were just a “small step from a very low starting point” for the Coalition.
He said voters looking for a change could still park their vote with One Nation, as Remeikis warned the major parties not to become complacent two years out.
“We’ve still got issues with inflation. We still have issues with the economy. We’ve got a very uncertain global security and economic scene at the moment, and that is all going to create unrest in Australia,” she said.
“If our major political parties do not come up with reassurance and also policies and a message that speaks to people’s actual concerns, we will see One Nation rise again.”
One Nation’s treasury spokesperson and MP Barnaby Joyce brushed off questions about whether Hanson’s remarks at the Press Club had turned away migrants and women, telling Sunrise on Monday that polls are an indicator and not a vote.
“You always expect there to be fluctuation in polls as you go through a process,” he said.
“I think that what there is an indication is that Pauline Hanson is direct. She doesn’t try to gild the lily. She’s straight down the barrel with what she says.”
Opposition Leader Angus Taylor has made a slight recovery in the polls. Today
Hanson is vying to become prime minister and, alongside Taylor, has left the door open to working together at the next federal election to oust Labor.
But the struggling opposition leader appeared to shut down the idea this week after making his strongest rebuke of her party to date.
He said an eternity of pain would follow if One Nation ever formed government and gave undecided voters reasons not to support them.
“One Nation is a column of smoke,” he told the Sydney Institute on Friday.
“Long on rhetoric but short on substance, One Nation’s offering is a random grab bag of poorly defined, contradictory, and constantly changing positions that leave no clear sense of who they are or what they stand for.”
Hanson responded to his comments by urging him to work with her, saying the Australian public is crying out for a change.
“Listen to the people, Angus, and work with me,” she said.
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