Analysis: How Mike Baird nailed the politics of Allianz Stadium

When it came to nailing the politics of stadiums, Mike Baird had it right.

Flying back from a trade mission to Israel in 2016, the former premier and his team were huddled in the lounge at Changi Airport in Singapore, fuming at what they saw as treachery from one of their own ministers.

I was sitting there with a group of other journalists, watching the usually unflappable premier get visibly angry.

Sports Minister Stuart Ayres had been (allegedly) briefing newspapers and reporters back home that Allianz Stadium should be knocked over, and a new facility built on Kippax Lake over the road.

On Mr Baird’s watch, it just wasn’t going to happen.

Even if the all-powerful SCG Trust’s argument about bulldozing the Sydney Football Stadium was sound, Mr Baird was acutely aware of the problems in spending huge amounts of taxpayer cash in the east of the city, on a stadium that is rarely full.

As soon as Mr Baird landed at Kingsford Smith, he completely shut Mr Ayres out of any discussions.

The minister had no visibility over negotiations or any input into the plans.

Mr Baird locked down the CEOs of all of the major sporting codes and nutted out a bi-partisan plan to redirect the government’s funds into Parramatta and ANZ Stadium at Olympic Park.

Whatever was left over would be spent on giving Allianz a facelift. They wouldn’t spend a cent more.

Mr Ayres was blindsided and so too the SCG Trust and broadcaster Alan Jones.

Mr Baird’s plan came with a guarantee of decades worth of NRL Grand Finals, State of Origins and big rugby and football matches.

Labor supported it too, and it looked like it was a job well done.

Mr Ayres was bruised but not deterred.

He told his Liberal colleagues and those aligned with the SCG Trust to wait until Gladys Berejiklian took over, so confident was the Member for Penrith that Mr Baird would not last the distance.

That much he got right.

Mr Ayres fundamentally believes in what’s been labelled by detractors as the “stadium splurge”; for his conviction at least, you have to give him some credit.

Ms Berejiklian took a while, but the new premier decided spending up big on three stadiums was the way to go.

Labor had an opening and with it a powerful political powder keg.

Michael Daley “sacking” Alan Jones and the SCG Trust board on-air has breathed new life into the debate.

Two weeks from polling day, the calculated “all-in” approach from the Opposition Leader has been seen - even in Liberal circles - as politically “brilliant”.

The story is both about the most powerful broadcaster in town and a stadium rebuild that has divided the public.

No amount of hospital, school or rail line spending figures can trump what is a hyper-emotive issue.

Mr Daley has successfully tapped into a sentiment that’s been lying dormant since the knock down of Allianz Stadium was first announced.

In the world of a 24-hour news cycle, the challenge for Mr Daley is holding onto that momentum until March 23.

The cold hard reality for Gladys Berejiklian is, if she loses this election, it’s Stuart Ayres she can thank for his service.