Tropical cyclone intensifying near NT coast could arrive as early as tomorrow

An early tropical cyclone is likely to develop off the coast of northern Australia as soon as tomorrow, with residents in the north of Western Australia and the Northern Territory urged to monitor updates.

The Bureau of Meteorology has warned that cloud and thunderstorm activity is now wrapping around a low-pressure system, which could intensify into a tropical cyclone by tomorrow evening.

It is moving away from Australia but the bureau believes it is likely to turn south and then south-west, toward the NT coast.

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The tropical low-pressure system is forecast to slowly move towards the east for the rest of today and tomorrow, said meteorologist Miriam Bradbury.

Bradbury said the strongest winds and rains are expected to develop away from the NT coast after tomorrow.

Rainfall will be heaviest near the coast, with the highest expected close to the Tiwi Islands and the north-west corner of the Top End, including Darwin.

"For the next few days, we are expecting this system to gradually move east-north-east," Bradbury said.

"At this point in time, we are expecting a possible intensification to tropical cyclone strength by around Thursday morning."

The bureau said there is a 25 per cent chance of it becoming a tropical cyclone by tomorrow evening and a 55 per cent chance by Thursday morning.

Tropical low could turn into cyclone

"Environmental conditions are favourable for development of (tropical low) 02U and the risk the low develops into a tropical cyclone increases as the week progresses," the Bureau's cyclone forecast said this morning.

"Although there remains high variability in model intensity ranges, there is increasing risk that 02U could become a tropical cyclone on Wednesday or Thursday."

The Bureau currently rates the chances of a cyclone developing at 60 per cent between 11 pm Thursday and 11 am Friday.

But the possibility remains over 50 per cent from tomorrow night, through to next Monday, which BoM calculates as a "high" risk level.

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"This system has already caused heavy rain and thunderstorms over the western Top End in the last couple of days, including 228mm in 24 hours at Charles Point near Darwin, which was its heaviest rain in a decade," Weatherzone reported.

"At this early stage in the system's development, it is difficult to predict exactly where it will move and how strong it will get.

"However, there is enough consensus between forecast models for residents in the Top End and Kimberley to pay close attention to the latest tropical cyclone forecasts and advisories for the most up-to-date information over the coming week."

Residents in those regions are urged to stay on top of weather updates and prepare their emergency plan.

While Australia's tropical cyclone season runs from November to April, it's rare to see one develop this early.

Weatherzone said only four cyclones in recorded history had made landfall on the Australian mainland in November, with the most recent being Tropical Cyclone Alessia in 2013.

Last month, the Bureau of Meteorology revealed the first cyclone to develop in the Australian region in the 2025-2026 season would be named Fina.

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