You're not imagining it, the price of your groceries is soaring. And the worst is yet to come
Grocery shopping isn't getting any cheaper for Australians, and new data suggests the worst is yet to come.
With many families now facing weekly grocery bills close to $300, the pressure is mounting: fresh ABS figures show national inflation has surged to 4.6 per cent
According to the Savings.com.au Grocery Price Index, a basket of Coles and Woolies home-brand items averaged $297.95 last month.
Inflation figures suggest that any reprieve for shoppers was short-lived. Getty
This represents a $24 increase since early 2024, cementing a painful new baseline for everyday spending.
The inflation trap
Despite grocery-specific inflation having shown signs of easing in March, the 4.6 per cent national spike suggests that any reprieve for shoppers was short-lived.
The challenge for household budgets is that inflation tracks the speed of price increases rather than the actual cost at the register.
In March, the same basket of home-brand items cost $301.95 at Coles and $293.94 at Woolworths. Getty
Even if grocery prices rose more slowly in recent months, those hikes were added to a basket that was already at record highs.
With national inflation now surging again, these new increases are being calculated on top of a $300 shop rather than the $250 families were paying two years ago.
The first domino to fall
If you want to know where the rest of the store is headed, look to the dairy aisle. Money expert Joel Gibson says milk costs are often the first domino to fall when supply chain pressures mount.
"We were told that dairy would be the first product category, 'cause of the Iran war, to start going up," he explained on Today. "And it has. So now we have to keep a close eye on the other stuff in the supermarket too."
Milk prices are often the first to rise when supply chain pressures mount. Supplied
Supermarkets like Coles, Woolworths, and Aldi have already lifted home-brand milk prices by 20 to 50 cents this month, following calls from farmers facing rising fuel-linked production costs.
Gibson says these "fuel surcharges" are finally starting to flow through the supply chain to shoppers.
Why your weekly total always changes
Even with a strict list, many shoppers find it impossible to predict their final total. Sharp price changes in specific staples, often driven by seasonal shocks or supply chain issues, can swing a bill by $10 or $20 in a single week.
Pink Lady apples shot up 61.5 per cent over the past year. Bloomberg via Getty Images
Produce
A Pink Lady 1kg punnet shot up by a national average of 61.5 per cent over the past year. Coles saw an 81.6 per cent jump to $8.90, while Woolworths prices rose a comparatively lower 43.6 per cent to $7.90.
It was a similar story for a 1kg bag of brown onions, which saw an average annual spike of 63.6 per cent in February.
Coles prices went up by 44 per cent, though Woolies shoppers were hit harder with a 89.5 per cent rise for the same bag.
Pantry staples
Eggs have risen 20 per cent in two years due to local supply shocks and bird flu fears. Meanwhile, coffee prices increased by nearly 50 per cent as global weather events contracted supply.
Avian influenza outbreaks in Victoria, New South Wales and the ACT triggered a nationwide egg shortage. Getty
When home brands aren't cheap anymore
In the past, families turned to home-brand products to save money. Now, the index shows that even this fallback is no longer offering much relief.
Because the cost of generics has climbed so steeply, a basket of strictly budget items in March 2026 ($297.95) is now more expensive than the index's original baseline was in January 2024 ($273.82).
Even if you buy the absolute cheapest version of every item on your list today, you are still paying $24 more than you would have for a standard shop just two years ago.
The squeeze is even tighter for those relying on convenience. Gibson found that a 2L bottle of milk selling for $3.55 at a regular Woolworths can cost $4.00 at a Woolworths Metro store.
What to expect
Although the frantic price jumps of 2024 have subsided, this week's inflation data confirms that prices won't be dropping back to "normal" anytime soon. Gibson also warned that prices are unlikely to drop once the market settles.
"It never goes down, it just stays the same or goes up more steeply. That's our experience in the past," he said. "In the short term, we are going to unfortunately see big grocery price increases."
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