New post-budget poll reveals mixed verdict for Albanese government

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said he expected to be down in the polls due to his trio tax reform handed down in the budget after the latest poll showed Opposition Leader Angus Taylor in front as the preferred prime minister.

The poll for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age found 36 per cent of respondents support the government's capital gains tax changes, while 21 per cent are opposed.

Another 42 per cent remain undecided, underlining how politically charged the debate has become.

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The broader polling picture was less encouraging for Labor.

The government's primary vote slipped two points to 29 per cent, while One Nation climbed to 24 per cent. The Coalition sat on 23 per cent.

Taylor pipped Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister, leading 33-30, with 37 per cent undecided.

Speaking to reporters this morning, Chalmers said he was not surprised by the results.

"It would surprise me more if we got some sort of bounce in the polls from the difficult decisions we took in the budget," he said while helping announce 50,000 new homes for Queenslanders.

"The budget was full of hard decisions and not handouts.

"We don't hand down budgets expecting to make some kind of big near-term positive difference to an opinion poll five days later, we make these decisions to make a big positive difference to the housing market over time, particularly for young Australians who have been locked up for too long."

READ MORE: Why you should care about negative gearing

The Albanese government is on a nationwide campaign to win support for the budget's headline housing measures, including major changes to negative gearing.

While Chalmers and Housing Minister Clare O'Neil are in Queensland, Albanese is in South Australia.

Taylor, who handed down his budget reply on Thursday, is in New South Wales propping up his own measures, which include tying migration rates to new housing builds.

But business groups, start-ups and property industry figures are warning the reforms could hurt investment and add strain to the rental market.

Under the government's overhaul, existing properties purchased after 7.30pm on budget night can only be negatively geared until July 1 next year.

After that date, negative gearing will apply only to newly built homes and to investment properties bought before the budget announcement.

READ MORE: Why it could take years for first buyers to benefit from housing tax reforms

The prime minister said the policy was designed to give younger Australians a better chance at buying a home.

"The investor who is bidding against someone who wants to live in that home as their first home won't have the taxpayer by their side," Albanese said.

At auctions across Sydney over the weekend, some first-home buyers said they believed the reforms could ease competition from investors.

"In the past, we may have been competing with a lot of investors, but now with everything that's happened, that may change slightly," Matt Beck said.

Another buyer, Annie Ird, said the mood among sellers appeared unsettled after the budget announcement.

"Places that were up for auction are now going for sale, so I feel like people are freaking out a little bit," she said.

The pair missed out on a home at auction on Saturday but said they remained hopeful.

Housing economist Andrew Wilson said the market was likely entering a transition period as investor numbers ease.

"I think we'll see fewer buyers. And there should be a transition period between fewer investors and more first home buyers."

The Coalition argues the reforms will reduce investment and increase rental costs.

"They're going to increase rents, build fewer homes and kneecap young Australians by taxing their first home deposit when it's invested," shadow treasurer Tim Wilson said.

Treasury modelling predicts the policy will slow house price growth by about 2 per cent over the next two years, while rents could rise by an average of $2 a week.

READ MORE: Chalmers takes a razor blade to negative gearing and CGT discount

Wilson said lower house price growth was likely in the short term.

"I think in the shorter term it will put house prices under pressure. There's no doubt about that," he said.

For buyers like Beck, the debate goes beyond investment returns.

"This isn't an investment property search, it's a place to live," he said.

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