Federal election 2022 key seats electorate state by state scott morrison anthony albanese explainer 20220520 p5yfxx.html – Breaking News & Latest Updates 2026
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The key seats that will determine the outcome of the federal election

Nick Pearson
Nick Pearson

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Everybody in Australia has one vote on election day tomorrow, but if you want to decide who wins, you really have to live in specific spots.

Because when it comes to electioneering, not all electorates are created equal.

Scott Morrison hasn't shaken any hands in Newtown and Anthony Albanese hasn't kissed any babies in Toowoomba.

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Instead, the politicians were focused on the swing seats – the places in Australia that decide elections.

Here are the crucial seats in the upcoming federal election, state-by-state.

Victoria

Nine

For Labor last time around, Chisholm in Melbourne's east is the one that got away.

Bill Shorten campaigned hard in the electorate, but the Liberals held firm with MP Gladys Liu.

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Now the Liberals are holding on by a 0.5 per cent margin. If there's a big swing to Labor on election day, this will be one of the first seats to fall.

New South Wales

Nine

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Labor starts off on the defensive in New South Wales, with a series of states held by narrow margins, mostly around western Sydney and the Central Coast.

But the seats that may have the Liberals most nervous are ones that previously were considered unable to be lost by the party.

The seat they covet most is Warringah, formerly held by Tony Abbott, but now in the hands of independent Zali Steggall.

People in Sydney gather at a beach in Manly, on the city's north shore.

Manly is at the centre of the seat of Warringah, currently held by independent Zali Steggall. Getty

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Warringah could be the canary in the coalmine for the Liberals in blue-ribbon seats. If Steggall holds on for a second term, the government is in strife.

They are also facing spirited independent challengers in Wentworth, North Sydney and Hughes (currently held by the UAP's Craig Kelly).

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Queensland

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Nine

Queensland saved Scott Morrison last time around, with the LNP holding firm as they lost ground elsewhere.

The Coalition's closest seat is Longman, which takes in Caboolture, Burpengary and Bribie Island on the north side of Brisbane.

Labor's closest seat is the inner-Brisbane electorate of Lilley, which nearly lost last time after Wayne Swan's retirement.

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Tasmania

Nine

Thanks to a deal struck at federation, Tasmania always has five electorates, meaning they are smaller in population than anywhere else in the country.

As a result, politicians get more bang for their campaigning buck in Tasmania.

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The closest seat is Bass, centred on Launceston, which has changed parties in every election since 2001.

READ MORE: Pensioner explains reason he confronted the Prime Minister

Reflections at Home Point, Tamar River, Launceston, Tasmania, Australia.

Expect both leaders to make some visits to Launceston this election. Getty Images/iStockphoto

Liberal MP Bridget Archer holds the seat on a 0.4 per cent margin, meaning the slightest swing will put it in Labor hands.

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In Tasmania's northwest, Liberal-held Braddon is also at risk, while central Tasmania's Lyons is held by Labor by a 5.2 per cent margin.

South Australia

Nine

Labor is licking their lips at the prospect of picking up the seat of Boothby in Adelaide's south.

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The seat is held by a 1.4 per cent margin by Nicolle Flint, who was heavily touted as a future leader before she announced her retirement.

Labor will be pointing to the results in the state election earlier this month, where they picked up several electorates in the area.

Teens jump of the jetty at Glenelg beach during a hot day in Adelaide.

Glenelg in the crucial South Australian seat of Boothby. AAP

Western Australia

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Nine

The West has not been a bellwether in recent elections, swinging one way while the rest of the country swings the other.

But that may change thanks to the popularity of Premier Mark McGowan and his border policies.

On paper the least secure seat is Labor-held Cowan, but more campaigning has been done in Liberal-held Swan, thanks to the retirement of MP Steve Irons.

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It's 3.2 per cent margin doesn't look very secure in the wake of a state election last year that left the Liberals with just two seats statewide.

Northern Territory

Nine

The Top End has two electorates - one very big and one very small. The Darwin electorate of Solomon is held by Labor by a margin of 3.1 per cent.

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But the seat of Lingiari, which is everywhere else in the Territory, is represented by long-time member Warren Snowdon, who is now retiring.

The election will determine whether Snowdon's personal appeal has been behind Labor's strong performance there over the years.

Without him, the 5.5 per cent margin seems far less secure.

Alice Springs Northern Territory

Alice Springs will be key to determining who will win the seat of Lingiari. Getty

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Australian Capital Territory

None of the seats in the ACT are competitive this time around, with all expected to go to Labor comfortably.

But this may be the year the Liberals lose a seat in the Senate in the territory.

While each state has 12 senators, the ACT has just two. If the Liberals' primary vote is low enough, the seat may be pilfered by former Wallaby captain and independent David Pocock.

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David Pocock was well-regarded as one of the most abrasive and technically gifted rugby forwards in the world in the past decade.

David Pocock was well-regarded as one of the most abrasive and technically gifted rugby forwards in the world in the past decade. Getty

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