Experts are ‘almost certain’ there’s another global pandemic on the horizon

Australia is facing its worst diphtheria outbreak in recorded history and Ebola is rapidly spreading across the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda.

The rapid spread of these infections is stoking fears that another global pandemic could be on the horizon.

According to Adelaide University chair of biostatistics Professor Adrian Esterman, the chances are “very high”.

“In our lifetime, it’s almost certain,” he told nine.com.au. 

“But it might be far more serious than COVID-19, and if it is, then we have absolutely no choice but to lock our borders as soon as possible, introduce quarantine for anyone infected, contact tracing, lockdowns if necessary.”

Have you got a story? Contact reporter Maddison Skipper at mleach@nine.com.au

Researchers estimate there’s about a 2 per cent chance of a pandemic as severe as COVID-19 breaking out in any given year.

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Over a decade, that adds up to a one-in-five chance. Over a lifetime, it’s even higher.

What’s much harder to predict is what virus might be responsible for the next global pandemic.

Hundreds of cases of diphtheria, a rare bacterial disease, have already been recorded in Australia in 2026.

Across the Indian Ocean, more than 500 Ebola cases and 100 deaths have been recorded, and violence has broken out in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

While both outbreaks remain localised for now, they could break containment if not managed appropriately.

“The COVID-19 pandemic, in a sense, wasn’t so bad because its case fatality rate was relatively low,” Esterman said.

“But things like Ebola, you’re looking at a 30 per cent case fatality rate even for the mildest form, and for the [most severe] form you’re looking at 80 to 90 per cent case fatality rate.

“It’s really frightening.”

One virus is even more concerning than diphtheria or Ebola to epidemiologists trying to predict the next pandemic right now: the H5N1 avian flu.

The strain has killed millions of birds and infected many other animals around the world, and has even started spreading from animals to humans.

Though no human-to-human transmissions have been reported yet, the human mortality rate is high.

Australia and Oceania are currently the only regions in the world that remain free of the H5N1 strain.

“The good news is that there is a good vaccine against it, and it’s actually made by our own [manufacturer],” Esterman said.

“So if it did turn out that H5N1 was the next pandemic, then we would be well-prepared.”

Australia also shouldn’t go into any future global pandemics blind, unlike when COVID-19 hit in 2020.

Those “unprecedented times” forced governments and health authorities to respond to a rapidly changing situation the likes of which they’d never encountered before.

The result was infected Aussies quarantining in hotels that weren’t fit for purpose, lacklustre communication from state governments, and inconsistent lockdown rules and restrictions.

If another pandemic were to hit, things would be different.

Australia now has its own Centre for Disease Control (CDC), purpose-built quarantine stations, a Moderna factory that can produce vaccines, and stockpiled drugs and equipment.

We also have some experience managing a pandemic.

“When COVID-19 hit, we’d never really had this happen to us before, so it was all sort of playing it by ear,” Esterman said.

“Now we are in a much better position.”

Epidemiologist Dr Davoud Pourmarzi from The Australian National University National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health warned Australia may run into issues if the next pandemic doesn’t hit for 15 years or more.

“If it is further in the future, we may have forgotten what we have learned during COVID-19,” he told nine.com.au.

“The question is, are we training our future experts and leaders to be ready to deal with the next pandemic?”

It’s important for COVID-19 learnings to be included in university curricula so future experts and leaders are exposed to them.

Australia also needs to continue developing and updating pandemic preparedness plans at national, state and territory levels, and work on social determinants of health, like access to health services and trust in health authorities.

“We need to work on these areas to make sure everyone is protected,” Pourmarzi said.

“And we need to remind ourselves that no one is safe until everyone is safe.”

While the risk of Australia experiencing another major pandemic in the near future is high, Esterman said the general public shouldn’t lose sleep over it.

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Instead, they should take steps to protect themselves and others from localised outbreaks of diseases like diphtheria, measles and syphilis.

“People like myself and other epidemiologists are keeping a careful eye on things, the CDC are keeping a careful eye on things,” he said.

“I’m more worried about the drop in vaccine coverage, because that’s causing these smaller outbreaks that we don’t want or need.”

Australia’s vaccination rates have been declining since the COVID-19 pandemic and diseases which had previously been eradicated in Australia, like endemic measles, are making alarming resurgences.

Declining trust in public health and misinformation spread online hasn’t helped the situation.

Pourmarzi urged all Aussies to trust the Australian public health advice and act based on that.

A CDC spokesperson told nine.com.au we can be certain there will be future infectious disease outbreaks and health emergencies in our lifetimes.

“The question is not whether they will occur, but how well-prepared we are when they do,” they said.

“Strong public health systems, informed communities and high vaccination coverage remain among our best protections against future health threats.”

Anyone with questions about whether to take a vaccine or restrict travel should speak to their GPs and health providers.