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The five maps that show how extreme Australia's weather will become in the coming decades

Daniel Jeffrey
Daniel Jeffrey

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Higher temperatures, increased deadly heatwaves, more drought, and worse bushfires.

Those are just some of the realities Australians can look forward to as the planet continues to warm up.

The federal government's National Climate Risk Assessment, released earlier this week, painted a bleak picture of increased deaths from extreme heat, millions of people at risk from rising sea levels, and even a more than half-trillion-dollar hit to the property market in the coming decades.

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READ MORE: Aussies staring down the barrel of $770 billion property catastrophe

A cracked riverbed during drought in NSW.

Severe drought is just one of the impacts of climate change Australians have been warned to expect. David Gray/Getty Images

In addition to the 284-page report, the Australian Climate Service has released a series of maps illustrating the changes to the weather across the country we can expect as the climate continues to warm.

Here are five of them.

Extreme heat

The risk assessment modelled three different scenarios of climate change: 1.5 degrees, 2, and 3 degrees of global warming. The current level of warming is around 1.2 degrees.

It follows that temperatures are going to rise under those scenarios, although the increases felt on hot summer days will be far more substantial than the degree or so suggested by the headline figures.

"Extreme temperatures are likely to increase nationwide, with the greatest increases over northern Australia, the Great Dividing Range in the southeast, and in desert regions," the report states.

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You can use the slider tool on the images below to compare the scenarios.

Highest daily maximum temperature reached in a year, current vs 3 degrees of warming:

At the same time, the number of heatwave days is also expected to surge.

"Severe and extreme heatwave events are projected to double if global warming reaches +2.0 degrees and more than quadruple under 3 degrees of warming," the report states.

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Number of heatwave days per year, current vs 3 degrees of warming:

Extreme rainfall

While overall precipitation is likely to decrease due to climate change, Australians have been warned to expect more extreme rainfall events when clouds do break, causing worse flooding around the coasts and rivers.

"The National Climate Risk Assessment makes it clear that describing extreme weather events as 'once-in-a-century' is no longer accurate," environmental sustainability expert Dr Kat O'Mara said. 

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READ MORE: Heatwave deaths to skyrocket and 1.5 million Australians at risk of sea level rise

"These events are becoming more frequent and intense, and we must remain vigilant as climate projections evolve, especially given that global efforts to reduce carbon emissions are still falling short of what is needed."

Highest five-day rainfall totals per year, current vs 3 degrees of warming:

Severe bushfire risk

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With higher temperatures and less rain, it comes as little surprise that the risk of severe bushfires is forecast to increase as the planet warms.

"The National Climate Risk Assessment predicts dangerous fire weather days will happen more often, with longer fire seasons and the potential for megafires in southern and eastern parts of the nation," climate councillor and former Fire and Rescue NSW commissioner Greg Mullins said.

Number of days per year with extreme bushfire risk, current vs 3 degrees of warming:

Fellow former emergency worker Major-General Peter Dunn, the ex-ACT Emergency Services Authority commissioner, said repeats of the Black Summer bushfires are likely.

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He was on he ground in Lake Conjola, one of the worst-affected areas in 2019-20.

"As the fires bore down on us with almost no warning, we lost power, water and road access," he said. 

"We had nowhere to evacuate, so we went to the ocean as 89 of our neighbours' houses burned to the ground… we can expect more fires like these."

READ MORE: Are shark attacks on the rise and what can we do to stop them?

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Bumbalong residents getting ready to defend their home from a bushfire south of Canberra

Bushfire risk is expected to increase. Alex Ellinghausen/Sydney Morning Herald

Severe drought

Just as hotter, drier weather is likely to lead to increased bushfire risk, it follows that it also increases the risk of worsening droughts.

The report outlines that more of Australia – particularly in southern and south-west regions of the country – is expected to spend more time stricken by drought, even as other parts of the country are inundated by heavy rain.

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Per cent of a year spent in drought, current vs 3 degrees of warming:

"The results of climate change that we are experiencing are more droughts, including the relatively newly recognised form of drought termed 'flash drought', increasing flash floods, and heatwaves," meteorological expert Milton Speer, a visiting fellow at the University of Technology Sydney, said.

"Extremes in rainfall are occurring all at once in different parts of the country. 

"For example, parts of the Australian south-east coast are on track for an extreme annual rainfall total from rain in the historically cooler months while Melbourne is on track for its lowest annual total on record."

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