El Niño may form during winter, Bureau of Meteorology warns

After years of wet seasons, Australia is looking increasingly likely to be hit by drier-than-usual conditions, potentially by as soon as winter.

In its latest climate driver update, released on Wednesday afternoon, the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) said an El Niño weather system may form in the next few months, but said the chances of one this year remain at 50 per cent.

"There are signs El Niño may form during winter," the BoM said.

READ MORE: El Niño looking more likely due to warm ocean blob

"International climate models suggest neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are most likely to persist through autumn.

"From July, all but one of the models indicate El Niño thresholds will be met or exceeded, with all models meeting El Niño thresholds by August."

However, the bureau noted ENSO forecasts for beyond autumn should be treated cautiously, due to a lower level of accuracy than predictions made at other times of the year.

READ MORE: What Australians can expect for summer after El Niño watch issued

Adding to the chances of a dry second half of the year is the possibility of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the BoM said.

"All models suggest that a positive IOD event may develop in the coming months," it stated.

"A positive IOD can suppress winter and spring rainfall over much of Australia, potentially exacerbating the drying effect of El Niño."

ENSO conditions are currently neutral, after the rain-inducing La Niña system ended last month.

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