Trump still has total control of the GOP - and that could doom them

With months to go before the US mid-term elections, Donald Trump's iron grip on the direction of the Republican Party shows no sign of loosening - and that could spell trouble for them.

Early primary contests in Republican races around the US have almost entirely gone to Trump-backed candidates, even those running against incumbent GOP representatives who Trump perceives as disloyal.

Republican Thomas Massie, a Kentucky congressman, is perhaps one of the highest-profile victims, losing in a primary race to retain his own seat after pushing back on Trump's war with Iran and consistently advocating for the full release of the Epstein files.

LIVE UPDATES: As Trump claims deal is close, Iran is spotted laying mines

But increasingly, there are fears that while Trump's MAGA movement remains in control of the Republican Party, it represents an increasingly small circle of voters.

The apparent paradox is that while kowtowing to Trump is the only way to get ahead in the GOP, it could result in a major thrashing for the party at the national polls.

"Trump's control is definitely not helpful in general elections, but I don't think there's evidence he cares much about the general election," United States Studies Centre research director Jared Mondschein told 9news.com.au.

READ MORE: Race to save seven people trapped in flooded cave in Laos

"Trump's name helps Republicans when it's actually on the ballot, but not when it isn't."

Mid-term elections in the US tend to go against the party in power, and Trump's popularity has taken a decided plummet.

Mondschein said Trump was reaching levels of historic unpopularity in the US, including among Republican-leaning voters, though he still enjoys near-universal approval among self-identified MAGA loyalists.

READ MORE: Minns admits 'giant intelligence failure' led to Bondi terror attack

"If the 2024 election were to be held again today, he'd lose it," Mondschein said, pointing to a collapse in support from demographics that backed Trump against Kamala Harris, including Hispanic voters and youths.

The unpopular Iran war, the recent "anti-weaponisation" Justice Department fund, the White House ballroom project, and ballooning living costs are all factors in this alienation.

But Mondschein said Trump, halfway through his second and final term as president, was "much more passionate" at this point about maintaining control over the GOP and MAGA, rather than broadening his appeal.

"It's hard to imagine him being popular," Mondschein said.

After the midterms

Among US political circles, it's a running joke that the Democratic Party is adept at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Nonetheless, most pundits are predicting a "blue wave" even in red-heavy states that could see the Democrats overtake the slim Republican majority in the House, and possibly even the Senate.

But regardless of what the Capitol looks like when the dust settles, Mondschein forecast changes ahead for the GOP.

"We're seeing the last of (Trump's) weight thrown around," he said.

Trump will officially be a lame-duck president after the midterms, with no more elections before the end of his term.

Mondschein said it was likely Republican lawmakers would begin to distance themselves - some with relief, some with reluctance - from the White House if the president's popularity continues to languish.

He said this would not be about their personal feelings for Trump but out of "naked self interest" in their political survival.

"Even in the reddest of red districts, you're seeing Republicans now pushing back," he said.