The subtle new skill that makes Sabalenka even scarier could be where Australian Open final will be won and lost

MELBOURNE: Elena Rybakina could turn the women's final into a "blockbuster" if she has learned from the painful lessons of three years ago.

Rybakina's Saturday night date with Aryna Sabalenka is a rematch of the 2023 Australian Open decider.

On that night the adopted Kazakh threatened a major boilover when she took the first set 6-4 on Rod Laver Arena.

Watch the Australian Open live & free on the 9Network & 9Now. Stan Sport is the only place to watch every match, live & on demand with centre court in 4K.

But she couldn't keep it up as Sabalenka - then the fifth seed - took the next two sets 6-3, 6-4.

"Sabalenka goes in as the favourite because she's won here twice before," Sam Smith told Stan Sport's Grand Slam Daily.

"Rybakina tore out of the blocks three years ago. She probably could have got it in the second and then got dragged into a third, so I think she would have learnt from that. I do feel that we're potentially in for a blockbuster."

READ MORE: Alcaraz wins controversial five set epic

READ MORE: Parents condemn awkward moment daughter was thrown into

READ MORE: 'He smoked me': Wallabies gun's painful memory of Crichton bashing

Sabalenka will bid for a third Australian Open trophy in four years on Saturday.

The dynamics have shifted since Sabalenka's breakthrough win in 2023, the 27-year-old now the clear favourite following three more grand slam triumphs and Rybakina yet to win another major after her 2022 Wimbledon success.

The pair know each other well having met 14 times on tour, with Sabalenka holding a narrow edge in a rivalry marked by bruising baseline battles and momentum swings.

"She's peaking at exactly the right time," Smith said of the world No.1 from Belarus.

"She's already won four majors, so she knows exactly what she's doing, what she needs to do. She's 27 now, she's hugely experienced, and I think she's paced this tournament unbelievably well. I still feel there's another rung to go."

That's a scary thought considering Sabalenka's 6-2, 6-3 semi-final rout of Elina Svitolina, who had herself just dismantled world No.3 Coco Gauff.

Smith, the former Great Britain No.1, called the semi-final for Nine.

"I was really impressed with Sabalenka's serving and particularly her forehand," she said.

"She's put a lot more spin on the forehand over the last few years to give her control. I thought that topspin forehand was enormous and I love the way that she ghosted in to the net. It's giving her more opportunities to come forward, and I was very impressed how she's added it in big matches.

"It's fine on the practice court or earlier rounds. But she was happy to ghost in, knock off the volley into the open court against one of the fastest players out there. That tells you a lot where her confidence is."

Victory would give Sabalenka her fifth grand slam title, drawing her level with Martina Hingis and Maria Sharapova and cementing her place among the most successful players of the modern era.

Russian-born Rybakina holds the recent bragging rights, having defeated Sabalenka in the WTA Finals title match at the end of 2025, and the fifth seed said she was banking on that experience to get her over the line at Melbourne Park.

Given Sabalenka's background and Rybakina's early ties to Moscow, the final will have political undertones due to Russia's war in Ukraine and Belarus's role as a staging ground for the invasion.

Melbourne has been especially kind to Sabalenka.

She has won 26 of her last 27 matches at the year's first grand slam with her only defeat coming against Madison Keys in the 2025 final, which denied her a Melbourne three-peat.

Sabalenka's game is tailor-made for the fast, blue hardcourts which have rewarded her heavy first serve and flat groundstrokes, and she has not dropped a set en route to the final this year.

Rybakina has been just as efficient, marking the first time that both Australian Open women's finalists have reached the decider without surrendering a set since Justine Henin and Kim Clijsters in 2004.

While Sabalenka breezed past Svitolina, Rybakina had to battle against Jessica Pegula to earn a 6-3, 7-6 win and keep her record intact.

The 2022 Wimbledon champion has been in blistering form since the latter stages of last year, piecing together 13 wins from her last 14 matches and sustaining a level of consistency that has made her a threat.

"Of course, many years have passed (since the 2023 final) and a lot of matches have been played," Rybakina said.

"Hopefully all the experience I got from the last match and the last final that I played here, I can bring it to Saturday's match and do my best.

"Since we're both very aggressive players, the serve will be important. I'll fight till the end, and hopefully this time it's going to go my way."