'We're going to need a little bit of luck': Wild scenarios possible under new Super Rugby Pacific finals system
Updated . First published at
The Super Rugby Pacific playoffs are set, with three qualifying finals set to take place this Friday and Saturday, where three winners and one 'lucky loser' will advance to the semi-finals the following weekend.
The second-placed Crusaders will host the fifth-placed Reds in Christchurch on Friday night, before the first-placed Chiefs host the sixth-placed Blues in Hamilton on Saturday night.
Immediately after that comes the match between the third-placed Brumbies and fourth-placed Hurricanes in Canberra, which could end with both teams going through, if there hasn't been an upset beforehand.
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Eleven teams are down to six as the Super Rugby Pacific finals kick off. Getty/Nine
If either the Blues or the Reds were to get up, things could get complicated, as either the Chiefs or the Crusaders will become the 'lucky loser,' but will drop down a seed in the process.
There are eight possible combinations of results and it can be hard to get your head around it, so we've gone to the trouble of breaking down how the semi-finals will shape up in each of the eight scenarios.
Scenario 1
Winners: Chiefs, Crusaders and Brumbies
Semifinals: Chiefs (1) v Hurricanes (4), Crusaders (2) v Brumbies (3)
Scenario 2
Winners: Chiefs, Crusaders and Hurricanes
Semifinals: Chiefs (1) v Brumbies (4), Crusaders (2) v Hurricanes (3)
Scenario 3
Winners: Chiefs, Reds and Brumbies
Semifinals: Chiefs (1) v Reds (4), Brumbies (2) v Crusaders (3)
Scenario 4
Winners: Chiefs, Reds and Hurricanes
Semifinals: Chiefs (1) v Reds (4), Hurricanes (2) v Crusaders (3)
Scenario 5
Winners: Blues, Crusaders and Brumbies
Semifinals: Crusaders (1) v Blues (4), Chiefs (2) v Brumbies (3)
Scenario 6
Winners: Blues, Crusaders and Hurricanes
Semifinals: Crusaders (1) v Blues (4), Chiefs (2) v Hurricanes (3)
Scenario 7
Winners: Blues, Reds and Brumbies
Semifinals: Brumbies (1) v Blues (4), Chiefs (2) v Reds (3)
Scenario 8
Winners: Blues, Reds and Hurricanes
Semifinals: Hurricanes (1) v Blues (4), Chiefs (2) v Reds (3)
Super Rugby Pacific – playoffs, week one (AEST time)
Winners and the highest-ranked loser advance to the semi-finals.
Friday, 5.05pm: Crusaders (2) v Queensland Reds (5); Apollo Projects Stadium, Christchurch
History shows home advantage is a key factor in Super Rugby playoffs.
The Reds had a drought-breaking win in Christchurch last year but were pumped 43-19 on return to the Garden City in March.
"We know it's going to be tough," Reds coach Les Kiss told Stan Sport.
"They're a very, very good side, particularly at home. Our own man James O'Connor's doing some good things there as well, but right through their team they've got quality.
"Even without the man at the back who's super quick (injured Will Jordan), they still seem to be able to put points on. So I'm under no illusions. It's going to be tough."
Saturday, 5.05pm: Chiefs (1) v Blues (6); FMG Stadium Waikato, Hamilton
The Chiefs and Blues meet in a repeat of last year's grand final, won 41-10 by the Blues.
This year, the top ranked Chiefs start as firm favourites.
The Blues started the last round in seventh place and moved into the playoffs with a 46-6 win over the Waratahs who also were in playoffs contention.
"The Blues have built their games nicely over the past few weeks," Chiefs coach Clayton McMillan said.
"We expect they will come in with a bit of momentum and no shortage of confidence. We'll be treating this like every other game with respect for the opposition, what they bring, and the assumption they'll put up a tough game."
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Saturday, 7.35pm: Brumbies (3) v Hurricanes (4); GIO Stadium, Canberra
The Brumbies have now qualified for the playoffs in eight of the last nine full Super Rugby tournaments.
They last qualified in first place in 2004, a year they went on to win the title.
But the Crusaders scored a contentious late try to beat the Brumbies 33-31 in Canberra to take second place and consign the Brumbies to third.
"It's been 21 years and every year we start the season and talk about top two as a goal," coach Stephen Larkham said.
"So yeah, we've missed an opportunity there again. It makes it a little bit harder for us. We're going to need a little bit of luck to get a home semi-final but that's out of our control now."
- with AP
