Schmidt’s intel, ‘angrier’ star: Why Wallabies can upset Ireland

It seems a lifetime ago now, but the 2025 British and Irish Lions tour of Australia was an absolute belter.

It had everything: a fan base who drank entire cities dry while befriending the locals, top-notch midweek games including a near mammoth upset from the Pasifika/Indigenous team, and a Test series so full of drama that even Hollywood scriptwriters nodded in approval.

Yep, a lifetime back ... and while the Lions aren’t here, Ireland very much are.

Their coach Andy Farrell has switched out the red British and Irish Lions playbook for a green one, and there are plenty of familiar faces out in the middle for the Irish, too. Bundee Aki, Dan Sheehan, Jamison Gibson-Park and the Lions series winning try-scorer, Hugo Keenan, are all in town again.

If their world ranking of three isn’t enough to see them start as favourites, there’s also the incoming army of Guinness-fuelled Irish fans who are everywhere in Sydney. The latest ABS census tells me there are more than 22,000 Irish-born folks across the harbour city with the majority living a Gibson-Park box kick from Allianz Stadium. County Coogee ... Coogee Downs. You get the picture.

Yep, Ireland are rightful favourites to win their opening game of the Nations Championship on Saturday night, though this Wallabies outfit have got some real go about them, too. 

Wallabies boss Joe Schmidt has been able to select a match-day squad from a wider group of players who are fit and ready to rip. With the exception of 145kg enforcer Will Skelton, everyone is primed.

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Crucially, Len Ikitau, Tom Hooper, Angus Bell and Taniela Tupou have all returned from the northern hemisphere not just fit, but with their reputations enhanced as some of the best players across Europe.

Ikitau and Hooper were welcomed by the Exeter Chiefs with open arms and did their UK rugby family proud, helping them to an improbable grand final appearance in the premiership. Ikitau’s offloading has gone to another level and Hooper appears even bigger and angrier in contact.

Bell enjoyed a similarly successful stint at Irish club Ulster, which he said he loved and described as “unbelievable”. He also helped Ulster to the Challenge Cup final and scored try of the year in the United Rugby Championship.

The chat around Tupou is harder to get a gauge on given it’s all in French, though Stan Sport colleague Morgan Turinui, who dabbles in French, tells me Tupou’s time with Racing 92 has been impressive.

So, it’s a deep Wallabies squad that can certainly close a game out, with Tupou and James Slipper coming off the bench alongside Tate McDermott.

The other point worth noting is Schmidt’s intimate knowledge of a number of the players he coached during his time as boss of Ireland. Schmidt took a number of his Sydney Football Stadium opponents to No.1 in the world, meaning he knows all the ins and outs of those in green.

Finally, the style of game both coaches look to implement will be fascinating. All signs indicate this should be a Test match where there are plenty of points scored. Conditions are tipped to be great with a cold westerly breeze.

Club comps the world over in 2026 have shown those teams who “spin it”, particularly inside three phases of play or on the counterattack, have won almost all the silverware.

On top of the players’ willingness, the match directives for officials from World Rugby are juicy in detail. Here are the ref pointers around speed of play.

- Speed - quick ball while allowing contests for possession

- Tacklers tackler - must release and move away immediately (must not impact the cleanout on the jackler)

- Assist tackler - clear release with both hands and must not take space past the ball

- Jackler - enter legally, supporting weight, hands on ball and lifting

- Ball carrier - one immediate movement to present/release the ball

- Arrivers - enter square from own side, and “drive not dive”

- Ruck players - legal entry, on feet, “drive not swing”, and cannot play the 9

So, it all sets up for an outstanding opening night in Sydney.

Ireland might be the algorithm’s pick, but I think this Wallabies team can clip them at Allianz.

It’s set up as a barnburner.

Players to watch

Wallabies

#9 Ryan Lonergan

The Brumbies scrumhalf was recently crowned the Aussie Stan Sport Super Rugby Pacific Player of the Year on the back of some huge all-round performances. Lonergan earns a rare start in gold this weekend and will arguably be the most important player on the field for the home team. Can steer the side well with pinpoint kicks, has rapid service, goal kicks and can sneak a try.

Ireland

#10 Sam Prendergast

The 23-year-old Leinster flyhalf has been one of the most talked about players in Ireland in recent times. In, then out, then back into the national team, Prendergast is supremely talented with a huge cache of attacking weapons. If he clicks alongside Gibson-Park, points will come easily for the visitors.

Crunching numbers

Australia are unbeaten in their first Test of the year going back to 2020. Won five, drawn one.

Ireland coach Andy Farrell has won five of his last six Tests against Australia.

Max Jorgenson was the Wallabies’ leading try-scorer in 2025.

Ireland finished second in the 2026 Six Nations and averaged four tries per game.

It’s been more than 1100 days since Wallabies fullback Jock Campbell last played for Australia.