The 'complex' riddle Matildas must solve to contend for Olympic gold medal in Paris

All aboard, another white-knuckle Matildas ride is set for departure. It's not a bandwagon. Popularity is set in stone.

This team takes you on a rollercoaster. Up, down, at warp speed. You scream incoherently, and can't look away.

This Olympics has all the makings of another hypercharged campaign. Like the mayhem in the silence of Tokyo. Like the home World Cup that stood a nation so still, only Cathy Freeman could comprehend.

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In the year since, the Matildas 'brand' has become the envy of all others. Individuals that form the brand have their own suite of sponsors.

All of which is fantastic, but for one point. Tokyo: FOURTH. World Cup: FOURTH.

For all the love they get, this generation craves a real reward. A trophy. A medal.

How it happens in Paris depends on a few strained fibres and a gifted artist who now has her own Barbie.

*****

A year ago, Sam Kerr's calf went pop, and so, we thought, did the Matildas' World Cup chances. Kerr returned, scored a worldie, but couldn't quite haul her team to glory.

This time it's for real. Kerr's knee still needs time to heal, and to replace her there are two distinct ways the Matildas can go, both tried in the last few months.

Courtnee Vine, whose ferocious pace wouldn't be out of place off the blocks at Stade de France in week two of the Olympics.

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Or the 2016 Rio Olympian Michelle Heyman, sweeping back from the international abyss at the age of 36. Where Vine brings a threat through pure speed, Heyman brings a problem for defenders with her link play, while also her ability to be in the right place at the right time in the 18-yard box.

The World Cup proved the Matildas can function without Kerr. The best performance of the 2023 tournament, and perhaps the last decade came in a 4-0 destruction of Tokyo gold medallists Canada.

Two stars of that night hold the key to the Matildas chances in France. Steph Catley and Caitlin Foord. Both have arrived in France battling injuries. Foord a thigh strain, Catley a mysterious 'lower leg' problem.

Fully fit, they are as good as any left-side combination in football, obliterating Canada on that cool night in Melbourne late last July.

If they don't raise a sweat at these Olympics, it's hard to see how Australia contends for a medal.

*****

But let's keep it positive. Foord and/or Catley do recover. Tony Gustavsson's tactics board needs a series of big arrows pointed at one player.

Mary Fowler's attacking talent is world class and will be for the next decade. For the next fortnight, the Matildas simply have to base their tactical instruction around getting Fowler the ball in the final third and let her do her thing. Very few players can score effortlessly with both feet. Fowler can. Very few players can bypass five players with an inch-perfect pass to set up a shot on goal. Fowler can.

Of course, getting Fowler the ball in those areas is complex.

The Matildas have tried to evolve tactically, wanting to control the ball in midfield which can work if Katrina Gorry and Kyra Cooney-Cross are on song.

Tony Gustavsson has also tried a movement tweak that involves fullbacks inverting, joining midfield rather than staying traditionally wide, with largely ineffective outcomes. Ellie Carpenter needs to bomb forward down the right side, not gently provide a link in slow build up.

This looks, sounds and feels like Gustavsson's last tournament with the Matildas.

If Football Australia wanted the ever-smiling Swede to lead beyond Paris, surely an extension would have been forthcoming by now. The storyline will be left to smoulder for the next fortnight, and neither FA or Gustavsson will pay attention to it.

He will politely fend off questions. He will answer questions with a disarming "great question" and push his narrative in the most positive way possible, despite knowing full well age-old maxim of management certainly applies to him: Team wins, it's the players. Team loses, it's the coach.

Only once has this writer seen Gustavsson anything but a bundle of enthusiasm. Deep in the bowels of Sydney's Olympic Stadium last August, moments after the semi-final defeat to England. Exhausted, exacerbated, Gustavsson was ruing some missed opportunities.

The game gets to everyone eventually.

In a wider sense, his role hasn't been a simple case of coaching a football team.

Five years ago, Olympic qualifiers in Sydney were played in front of 5000 people. This time, corresponding crowds in Perth and Melbourne tipped well past 50,000.

Games sell out in nanoseconds. Players pose for front covers of fashion magazines, have become faces of lifestyle brands. Expectation, encouraged by Football Australia (and why not, the domestic game needs all the good vibes it can get), is at an all-time high.

Which is why a heavily controlled environment like the Olympics suits this side, and sits well with Gustavsson.

*****

Group games in Marseille and Nice happen well away from the festival in Paris.

The trio of tests, each three days apart offer unique, but far from impossible challenges.

Germany suffered a nonsensical group stage exit at the 2023 World Cup. Expect them to be better this time, despite a seismic, Kerr-like blow last week with midfielder Lena Oberdorf suffering a dreaded ACL injury in a European qualifier.

Three days later in Nice, Zambia, meant to be group pushovers. Same as the World Cup with an African opponent. Nigeria in Brisbane, a night that made pessimists of us all.

After Zambia comes USA, average age four years younger than the Tokyo team that tipped out the Matildas for bronze, undergoing a transformation under new manager Emma Hayes, who guided Chelsea to 14 domestic trophies.

Hayes isn't easing into the US job. Legend Alex Morgan watching the Olympics at home tells as much.

All of which the Matildas must overcome if this white-knuckle ride lands this famous bunch of women on a podium.

Seat belts on. Here we go again.

Adam Peacock will co-host Stan Sport's Olympics Daily and Paris Preview shows throughout the Paris 2024 Olympic Games.