Next Panthers dominoes to fall as dynasty team hangs by a thread

The first domino in Penrith’s well-documented salary cap squeeze has fallen, but there are still plenty of huge decisions facing the NRL heavyweights.

In an enormous yet unsurprising move, Brian To’o has confirmed he will leave the club and join the PNG Chiefs for their inaugural 2028 season.

To’o has been the heart and soul of the Panthers for many years, playing in all four of the grand final-winning sides and will go down as a true club legend.

The tackle-busting machine has crossed for 99 tries in 151 games and has already cemented his legacy as one of the greatest wingers of all-time.

While his departure at the end of next season is a crushing blow for the Panthers, it’s also not the most disastrous outcome for a club juggling their roster.

That’s taking nothing away from To’o - he has been one of Penrith’s most consistent players since his debut in 2019 and will be irreplaceable out wide, both for his try-scoring ability and his unparalleled work in yardage.

But with another 10 of his Panthers teammates still unsigned and the November free agency period fast-approaching, it could release just a little bit of pressure on the salary cap and allow the club to lock down some other key names.

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“It’s not all bad news for Penrith,” Wade Graham said on Triple M’s NRL Daily.

“They’ve got a lot of people coming off-contract and someone was going to have to leave and now they can focus on others. Now that To’o has made that early decision, they might be able to put their resources somewhere else.

“With this early decision, now they can actually start to focus on other guys.”

The most obvious two are co-captains Nathan Cleary and Isaah Yeo, who simply speak for themselves and will have Penrith officials bending over backwards to keep them and ensure they remain one-club players.

Cleary could demand upwards of $1.5 million, but the Panthers are working hard to ensure the champion halfback doesn’t hit the open market.

The exit of To’o probably means Penrith need to prioritise re-signing Paul Alamoti, who has turned into an elite outside back since joining the club, as well as cult hero and try-scoring phenom Tom Jenkins, who is still unsigned for 2027.

Izack Tago and Casey McLean are both signed through 2028 and if those four players are Penrith’s first-string outside backs, they will lose very little.

Back-rowers Liam Martin and Isaiah Papali’i would be in high-demand if they hit the open market and there’s a fair chance Penrith won’t be able to retain both.

Then there’s hulking prop Moses Leota, who has already been granted permission to negotiate with rival clubs before November, but is hopeful of staying put.

Given the Panthers are already losing Liam Henry to the Perth Bears next year, Leota is likely to be towards the top of the priority list for retention.

If he were to take a rival offer and walk, the Panthers would all of a sudden look very thin for middle forwards.

Penrith have shown an incredible knack of unearthing new stars and promoting talent from their own pathways - but with so much experience leaving the club they may be tempted to go to market to supplement the talent coming through.

There’s no shortage of talented forwards set to become available for negotiations from November 1, should they not re-sign with their current clubs.

If players like Martin or Leota joined long-time teammate To’o and headed for the exit, Penrith would have the potential to look at players like Xavier Willison, Jeremiah Nanai, Kulikefu Finefeuiaki and Tom Flegler, just to name a few.

The clear priority right now for Penrith is to get Cleary, the best player in the NRL, to extend. After To’o confirmed his plans and once that next domino falls - whether it be Cleary re-signing, testing the market or another player like Leota or Martin leaving - the picture will become a little bit clearer.

Panthers 2027 off-contract list

Billy Scott, Blaize Talagi, Isaah Yeo, Isaiah Papali’i, John Fonua, Liam Martin, Luron Patea, Moses Leota, Nathan Cleary, Paul Alamoti