EXCLUSIVE: Phil Gould fears for 'fierce' NRL player market as expansion squeezes talent pool
Phil Gould claims the "fierce" NRL player market is "only going to get worse" when the competition expands to 18 teams in the coming years.
With long-term and big-money contracts becoming the norm for a large majority of marquee talent, it has become increasingly difficult for clubs to lure rival players.
There are of course exceptions to the rule, but it requires huge coin - see Jarome Luai at the Wests Tigers - for a player to move on in the midst of success.
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And with the game's powerbrokers inching closer towards announcing another expansion franchise, Gould made a big prediction regarding the upcoming November free agency period for the 2026 season and beyond.
Phil Gould. NRL Images
"There is very much a shortage of experienced, quality NRL talent who are actually on the market at the moment - and it's only going to get worse," he said on Wide World of Sports' Six Tackles With Gus.
"When you think about the fact we're about to announce an 18th team, and then probably a 19th and 20th, the competition in the marketplace is going to get quite fierce.
"I've sort of been predicting that once this weekend is over and nine teams who haven't qualified for the finals will start their reviews and looking at their rosters - they will start tapping players on the shoulder or looking for someone else.
"Clubs will be starting in November to look for who they can sign for 2026 and the player market will become pretty fierce. It's going to be a very interesting pre-Christmas period … you're gonna see a lot of action."
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There have already been some major moves for next year, with the likes of Valentine Holmes and Addin Fonua-Blake granted early releases to switch clubs.
Valentine Holmes will head to the Dragons next year. NRL Images
An increased push by clubs to tidy up their salary cap has also seen players like Daniel Saifiti, Jack Bird and Reagan Campbell-Gillard tapped on the shoulder and given permission to leave early from their current deals.
"When you sit down and analyse it, your best course of action is to keep the ones you've got who are going well and not get too creative with it," he said.
"Unless you've got a development program and good kids coming through, it's very hard to go into the marketplace and get good value for money and good experienced players who can make a difference to your club.
"You don't want to just go out and spend your money willy nilly and pray for someone to come in and change your fortunes."
Penrith have struggled to retain plenty of their top stars in recent years and that will only worsen in 2025 - but as Gould points out, the development system is the best course of action as opposed to recklessly spending overs to attract talent.
Spencer Leniu left the Panthers at the end of 2023. Getty
The three-time reigning premiers will lose the aforementioned Luai, as well as James Fisher-Harris and Sunia Turuva, at the end of this year, while local products Stephen Crichton and Spencer Leniu have already been squeezed out due to salary cap restraints.
The upcoming November 1 date which Gould alludes to will see dozens of NRL players become available, with both recruitment and retention to become paramount.
Sam Walker, Reece Walsh and Ryan Papenhuyzen could all become hot property should their current clubs fail to lock them up before the transfer market is blown wide open, while some talented youngsters will also be on the radar of all 17 teams.
