Wild pitfall premiership fancies must dodge as final ladder is decided
The final round of the AFL season is upon us and, well, it’s not quite right to say everything is on the line because, unfortunately, it isn’t.
The top two spots on the ladder are locked away, and we already know the 10 teams who will be playing finals, or a Wildcard Game; all that is left to determine is seeding from third to 10th.
Carlton secured the final spot in the top 10 on Sunday evening. Getty Images
Fremantle is locked into first with 19 wins and Sydney is locked into second with 17, they’re not going anywhere.
Having said that, there are multiple premiership contenders who could finish anywhere from third to seventh. The difference between a double chance and having to fight through the wildcard gauntlet, will mean everything to them.
Finishing third could allow you to win the premiership with just three more wins. Finishing seventh means you have to win five, four of which will be on the road. That’s just not happening.
The clearest way to unpack what is at stake is to go through game by game to unpack what’s at stake and who can finish where.
St Kilda versus Gold Coast - Marvel Stadium, Thursday night
Both teams are eliminated. All that is at stake here is determining once and for all who was the single most disappointing team of the season, but it will be difficult for Gold Coast to lose that mantle now. This looms as a primetime disaster for the AFL in an empty and echoing Marvel Stadium.
Collingwood (8th) versus Brisbane (3rd) - Friday night, MCG
Brisbane enters round 24 in third, ahead on percentage from Hawthorn and Melbourne. In order to lock itself in that spot, it will need to head to the MCG and beat Collingwood on Friday night.
The Pies have virtually nothing to play for as they are locked into a Victorian Wildcard game regardless, so the Lions should be clear favourites.
Brisbane can finish as low as seventh and plummet into the Wildcard snake pit in the worst case scenario, if they lose to Collingwood and other results go against them. It’s a tight group of teams between third and seventh.
The Magpies will finish eighth or ninth. They are locked into playing either the Bulldogs or Blues at the MCG, and the only factor for them is whether they are the home team or not, which will only matter for members and seat allocations.
Carlton (10th) versus Fremantle (1st) - Saturday afternoon, Marvel Stadium
The Dockers are locked into first. The only question is whether they want to take it easy and rest players given that would effectively mean two full weeks out of rhythm before a qualifying final, or do they attack this like any other game.
Carlton will either finish ninth or 10th, and would certainly rather finish ninth and play either Collingwood or the Bulldogs at the MCG. Finishing 10th means it could be heading to Adelaide or Brisbane, or face Geelong, Hawthorn or Melbourne. There’s no reason for the Blues not to hit this game with everything they have.
Melbourne has been the surprise riser of 2026. AFL Photos
Melbourne (5th) versus Western Bulldogs (9th) - Saturday twilight, MCG
The Western Bulldogs are in the same boat as the Blues in that if they lose and the Blues win, they could be the team in 10th and facing the most difficult path through to the real finals.
If they beat Melbourne, they can finish as high as eighth where they will host Collingwood in an MCG Wildcard extravaganza. If they lose and Carlton also loses, they will stay ninth and still play the Pies.
Melbourne is one of the teams fighting for a top four spot and a double chance. Given they sit just over eight per cent back from Brisbane and six from Hawthorn entering the round, the Dees will likely need both of them to lose to finish third, or one of them to lose to finish fourth. They will remain fifth if they win as a worst case scenario.
If they lose, they can finish as low as seventh if Geelong and Adelaide both win and leapfrog them. This would see them playing Carlton in a Wildcard Game at the MCG, instead of potentially securing a top four spot. There’s a lot at stake for Melbourne.
Geelong (6th) versus Richmond - GMHBA Stadium, Saturday night
All Geelong can do is beat the lowly Richmond and hope the teams above them fall over.
The Cats can still finish as high as third, but they will need Brisbane, Hawthorn and Melbourne to all lose for that to happen. Fourth is in sight if two of those teams falter.
Their most likely landing spot is fifth or sixth and hosting an elimination final, assuming a couple of results go against them. If it all explodes and they somehow lose to the Tigers, they will be tossed into the Wildcard mess and have to play Carlton or the Bulldogs.
The Crows will be desperate to avoid Wildcard round. Getty Images
Adelaide (7th) versus GWS - Adelaide Oval, Saturday night
Adelaide enters the round in the same boat as Geelong, just with an inferior percentage. It can finish third in the same scenario as the Cats, except Geelong will also need to lose for that to happen, on top of everything else.
They will be hoping Melbourne loses to the Western Bulldogs given that will bump them from seventh up to sixth and allow them to host an elimination final and dodge Wildcard madness. The same would occur if Geelong lost to Richmond or Hawthorn to West Coast, but it all depends on percentage.
The most likely outcome for the Crows is staying put in seventh place and hosting either Carlton or the Bulldogs in a Wildcard bout. They will need an upset to occur above them to escape it.
Essendon versus Port Adelaide - Marvel Stadium, Sunday afternoon
The wooden spoon could change hands if Essendon beats Port Adelaide.
Otherwise, nothing at stake here.
Sydney (2nd) versus North Melbourne (SCG, Sunday afternoon)
As mentioned, the Swans are locked into second and not moving anywhere. Nothing to see here.
West Coast versus Hawthorn (4th) - Optus Stadium, Sunday evening
Hawthorn enters the final round of the season fourth and will be hoping Collingwood knocks over Brisbane on Friday night so it can move up to third and avoid Fremantle.
If the Lions win, they can still overtake them on percentage if they hammer West Coast. Importantly, they will know the exact margin required to do so given they play last.
If the Hawks lose, they could fall as far as seventh themselves if all other results go against them, but it will depend on percentage with Adelaide slightly behind them on that.
The most likely outcome for Hawthorn is remaining fourth, or jumping up to third given it will know the target percentage and the Eagles have nothing to play for.
Hawthorn will play in the final game of the home-and-away season against West Coast. AFL Photos via Getty Images
Predicted ladder:
- Fremantle
- Sydney
- Hawthorn
- Brisbane
- Melbourne
- Geelong
- Adelaide
- Collingwood
- Western Bulldogs
- Carlton
