Bombers urged to make ‘ruthless’ decision that could derail rival

Two of the AFL’s biggest clubs will engage in a game of poker across the trade and draft period, with Essendon and Carlton set to attempt to call each other’s bluffs.

It will surround Carlton father-son candidate Cody Walker, Essendon’s No.1 pick in the draft and the AFL’s draconian tightening of the draft bidding rules, which have put the Blues in a bind.

Walker is widely rated as the second best prospect in this year’s draft, behind Port Adelaide academy linked forward Dougie Cochrane. He is the son of former Carlton forward Andrew Walker and the club has been planning its list strategy around acquiring the midfielder in this draft for multiple years.

But then new AFL head of football Greg Swann pulled the rug out from Carlton and Port Adelaide earlier in the year, making it significantly harder to match bids on top father-son and academy players, and electing to implement those changes this year, giving clubs just one trade period to position themselves.

The new rules only allow clubs to use two picks to match a bid and have removed the 10 per cent draft points discount for teams that finished inside the top 10, which the Blues ultimately did. They also added greater incentive for teams in the top five to bid on players, by handing them a compensatory draft pick at the end of the first round if they are moved down the order by a matched bid.

This was all done to stop the farcical situations that played out across the 2020s, with top father-son draftees like Nick Daicos and Will Ashcroft joining their respective clubs for a bunch of nothing picks in the 40s.

The sudden implementation, however, has left Carlton scrambling to improve their draft position to ensure they can match a bid at pick one, to avoid Essendon potentially scooping up their guy. Port Adelaide’s headache has been lessened by the departure of Zak Butters, given they will be flush for picks from that trade.

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Carlton will likely be able to match a bid at pick two with their current draft hand, given they have their own first-round pick and Sydney's from the Charlie Curnow trade. However, they are currently around 500 points shy of being able to match a pick one bid. This is the equivalent of moving their pick 17 to about pick eight, which would likely force them to give up a future first-round pick to facilitate.

Now, this shouldn't be an issue in a vacuum. Cochrane is the No.1 rated player and Essendon will likely bid on him before Walker, to secure their end of first round compensation pick. Whether they bid on Walker at pick two or let Richmond do it at pick three, the Blues will be able to match.

But, and this is where we get back to the point of the article – you unfortunately need a PhD to explain the AFL’s draft complexities – this is where the Bombers could choose to get ruthless.

Essendon has leverage over Carlton here. Whether it’s saying they will draft Walker with pick one to force the Blues into an under-the-table trade or simply to grab the best available player, the power is in their hands. It would then go back to Carlton to determine whether they are bluffing or not.

Former AFL National Talent Manager and draft expert Mick Ablett believes this is an opportunity for Essendon to maximise that leverage in order to get something out of Carlton.

"The crux of the whole thing is, and this has gone on forever and a day, I used to have this argument with people all the time, the timeline has to be the timeline from an AFL perspective with trade period before the draft, so that's not going to change, but essentially what it is, it's draft tampering," Ablett told nine.com.au.

"Because at the end of the day, these deals get done. 'You look after us here and we won't bid here' and that sort of thing. So essentially it's draft tampering, but you're never going to change that.

"As much as people are saying Carlton are not in a position at the moment with the picks that they've got and they're 500-odd points short of where they need to be, the fact that you can trade future picks now and they've got two first-rounders next year, they'll get it done.

"If not, it's a matter of whether they can satisfy Essendon and prevent them from bidding on him at one."

Ablett firmly believes the Bombers should draft Walker at one, even if the teenager doesn't necessarily want to be at the club and despite it costing them an end of first round compensation pick.

"I think Walker will be a game changer. I think he has the generational talent to build a club around. He’s a high energy, Chris Judd type of player, he said.

"I had this same debate around Harley Reid and whether West Coast should have drafted him. Ultimately, if Essendon takes him, and let's just say for argument's sake Carlton goes, 'we don't have the points' and he lands at Essendon, whether he's there for a year, two years, whatever, you ultimately get the value back anyway if he leaves.

"If it means in 12 months' time Cody turns around and goes, 'I didn't want to be here in the first place and I want out', then Essendon will go to Carlton and do the same thing and go, 'OK, well now we want two first-rounders and an early second'. So you never lose, and that's why, in my opinion, Essendon should call him. Same thing could have applied to Reid at West Coast if he left.

"Because if you land him, you've got a superstar. And that's what rebuilds are made of. It's about landing the absolute guns. So I think they call him."

Multiple reports in the last week have suggested Essendon won't go down this path and that they will bid on Cochrane, get their compensation pick, and go from there, with those reports suggesting Walker could slide down the draft somewhat. Once Essendon has bid on Cochrane, all of the teams in the top five of the draft get that compensation pick and no longer have incentive to bid on Walker, other than to make Carlton pay fair price.

Ablett, however, believes this is where the Bombers need to consider becoming more “ruthless”.

"I think they're in the box seat. They're going to force Carlton to pay overs unless Carlton comes to Essendon in the trade period with a deal, or pays up elsewhere to be able to match the bid. Either way, it's a win-win for Essendon. If you land the player and you win him over, you've got a star. If he wants out in two years, you get Carlton to pay you a fortune for him," he said.

"It's a matter of whether Essendon has the courage to call him and pick him at one and get a little bit ruthless if it comes to that."

Of course, this entire situation only exists because Swann and the AFL elected to make significant changes to the draft bidding rules during the season, and only one year after previously tightening them.

Ablett believes it was a poor decision, saying the league should have announced the changes when they did, but implement them for 2027, giving teams a chance to prepare.

"I don't like decisions being made on the run. What I would think was fair and reasonable, because knowing the planning now that goes into the trading of future picks, how you set yourself up, the resources that clubs put into father-sons and academy players and the like two, three, four years in advance and start planning for that, I would have thought they would have said, 'We're going to bring this rule in and it applies to the 2027 draft'," he said.

"I know that's still short notice, but at least you go, 'OK, we've got over 12 months to plan for this and we can rejig things and look at it through a different lens'. But to do it in the season effectively and apply it to the upcoming draft, yeah, it lacks a bit of respect for mine."

Assuming Carlton trades to improve their draft hand, they will likely have given up five first-round draft picks to secure father-son draftees Walker and Harry Dean across the last two years.

The trade period gets underway on October 5, with the national draft itself taking place on November 19.