Eight bold predictions for the 2026 AFL season: Dream grand final delivered; new consensus best player in the game

The 2026 AFL season gets underway this week with Opening Round and that means it's time to put my neck on the line with some predictions.

It's hard not to overreact to what has just transpired in the AAMI Community Series, but it's worth remembering that last year Brisbane lost, West Coast won, Essendon beat Geelong and Carlton smashed GWS.

So everyone, especially Eagles fans, need to take a deep breath and prepare themselves for what will be a very long eight months of action.

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Without further fussing, here's eight predictions for the 2026 season.

1. A consensus No.1 guy arrives

OK, maybe this is an immediate overreaction to the pre-season, but Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera finished 2025 on a trajectory to this point anyway.

The Saints paid him $2m a season to stick around and now look set to unleash him as a midfield-forward dual threat. He kicked four goals and was destructive by foot against Essendon in the AAMI Community Series.

That sheer scoreboard impact he is capable of, coupled with his ball-winning, makes him one of the most dangerous players in the competition.

He will finish 2026 as the game's consensus best player, pushing past Nick Daicos and Marcus Bontempelli. He wins both the AFLPA and AFLCA player of the year awards. The Brownlow is too much of a lottery to predict at this point, but let's give him that too.

The last players to sweep all three awards were Lachie Neale in 2020, Dustin Martin in 2017, Patrick Dangerfield in 2016 and Gary Ablett in 2009; so talk about best of the very best.

2. Adelaide is the biggest slider

Adelaide was the sharp climber of 2025, jumping from the bottom four all the way to the minor premiership. The idea of them sliding all the way back down to the inaugural wildcard mix is hard to swallow, but let's break it down.

The Crows had one of the all-time runs of injury luck in 2025, which helped fuel their strong start to the season and momentum up the ladder. Already this season, they have half a dozen key players sidelined.

Teams have now had a summer to look at Adelaide's shock climb and study how to take them down. Their ruck situation looks flimsy at best, and question marks remain over their best midfield unit.

They play Geelong, Collingwood, Fremantle, Port Adelaide and the Bulldogs twice, and there's zero guaranteed wins among those games. Last year they had West Coast and North Melbourne twice.

I'm not talking about plummeting from 18 wins back down to the bottom four, but even dropping down to 12 would throw them into the wildcard mix, and maybe after 2024 was too cold and 2025 was too hot; 2026 will be just right.

3. West Coast wins FOUR games ... maybe FIVE

West Coast fans are in meltdown mode after their 73-point loss to Port Adelaide in the AAMI Community Series, coming off a one-win 2025 campaign.

And rightly so, Eagles fans have every right to be concerned, they did just have statistically the worst season of all-time Their best side on paper, however, is much stronger going into 2026. And that practice game featured effectively a WAFL team.

Slot Willem Duursma and Cooper Duff-Tytler straight into their best team from the top five of last year's draft, Josh Lindsay as well with pick 19, Deven Robertson, Brandon Starcevich and Tylar Young, coupled with, hopefully, some greater injury luck for the likes of Elliot Yeo and Jake Waterman, and you've got a much better looking team. At least, it's AFL standard.

Harley Reid hopefully emerges as a true star of the competition, a full season of Tom McCarthy, who looks like a top-level AFL gun, no Oscar Allen drama hanging over their heads, a great home field advantage... this is it Eagles fans. Get excited. Four or five wins and something to build off coming right up.

4. Collingwood's existential crisis begins

Collingwood looked the team to beat last year, but having the oldest list in the competition caught up to them by September as they ran out of steam and lost top spot, before bowing out in a prelim.

They have shed a few of their veterans like Brody Mihocek, Mason Cox and Will Hoskin-Elliott, but they remain tied to a group of key players in their 30s, with a largely unproven group of youngsters waiting in the wings.

The prediction here is the Magpies don't quite have as strong a season as 2025, and narrowly miss the wildcard round altogether.

From there, the club will need to do a lot of soul searching to avoid a West Coast-2020s-like fall from the spotlight. Lord help them if Nick Daicos then leaves for Tassie. It's hard to fathom what the list could look like come 2028 if that happens.

5. Michael Voss survives the year

Carlton coach Michael Voss enters 2026 as the only coach out of contract at the end of the season and with that comes high pressure and a clear spotlight on his future.

The Blues feel like a different team this year. At the very least, the vibes seem to be much better than where they sat 12 months ago, which isn't particularly hard given they haven't had their president post a picture of his genitals on social media, Jagga Smith hasn't torn his ACL, Charlie Curnow, Jack Silvagni and Tom de Koning aren't plotting their exits and they haven't (yet) blown a 42-point lead to Richmond, who were universal wooden spoon favourites.

Will Hayward, Ollie Florent, Ben Ainsworth and the other recruits have brought energy to the group, Harry Dean and Smith are set to debut, Wade Derksen and Elijah Hollands have overcome adversity to earn list spots - things are upbeat at Princes Park.

Even still, they likely don't have the depth or the firepower to break into the top 10 unless things go very right and they get some injury luck. Not many are expecting them to climb high, however.

If Voss can keep the playing group onside, inject some youngsters into the team and show supporters that there's a long-term plan, it's hard to see Carlton moving on, especially after the wholesale behind-the-scenes changes after 2025.

6. Giants succumb to injury woes

Last year's 'year from hell' injury team was clearly Essendon. As of early March, GWS looks the clear frontrunner for that undesirable title.

They already have the hardest fixture every year with travel and now they will be without Tom Green for the year, Sam Taylor for the first chunk of the season, Josh Kelly, Darcy Jones, Toby Bedford, Leek Aleer, Brent Daniels and Toby McMullin.

It's hard to know who to trust in that GWS midfield. Clayton Oliver is a case of 'believe it when you see it' and too much will be left to Finn Callaghan without Green and Kelly.

It might be a bit of a reset year for the Giants, after a few narrow misses at a premiership; and that might not be the worst thing for Adam Kingsley's group.

7. Essendon sneaks into the wildcard

Someone's got to jump up. Everyone has Sydney and St Kilda moving into the top 10, but seasons never go to plan like that. Somebody is going to finish inside the top 10 out of nowhere. Essendon, Carlton or Port Adelaide being the leading candidates.

And my pick is the Dons. They're due some good luck after the aforementioned year from hell. But more than that, at full strength, they have more weapons than you probably think.

Keeping Zach Merrett was crucial to that, but Darcy Parish is back, they added three of the top prospects in the draft and Nate Caddy could be on the cusp of stardom as a key forward. Jordan Ridley, Ben McKay and Zach Reid all being healthy at the same time for the first time ever? That would be nice.

They uncovered a few players who could have long futures amid the injuries, like Lachie Blakiston, Zak Johnson and Archie May.

Obviously, this is contingent on health. And maybe that's just not possible with this group, but Essendon sneaking into a wildcard game and causing the AFL one incredibly awkward moment as the Dons' 8000-day streak without a finals win goes up against the league's wildcard system, would be fitting.

8. An all-Queensland decider

AFL chief Andrew Dillon will get goosebumps down his arm if he's reading this. Both Queensland teams in the grand final? Every box on every whiteboard at AFL HQ will be ticked simultaneously if that comes about.

With Queensland becoming the state with the highest Aussie Rules participation outside of Victoria, the league has done everything in its power to ensure the strength of these two teams; and it's worked... a little too well... hence the three hyperlinks for you in one sentence.

In all seriousness, Brisbane is coming off successive flags and arguably has the best list they have had in the entire 2020s. They get back a bunch of key players from long-term injuries, they've added Sam Draper and Oscar Allen to bolster their key position depth, the Ashcroft brothers are a year older and Daniel Annable slides in as arguably the best pure midfielder in the 2025 draft.

Even if they start slowly after a tumultuous off-season, they will be the team to beat until someone eliminates them.

Gold Coast meanwhile has accumulated nine first-round picks in the last three seasons via their academy, Christian Petracca slides into their midfield alongside Noah Anderson and Brownlow Medallist Matt Rowell, they get Charlie Ballard back from a long-term injury, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan might add 30 goals and they want for absolutely nothing across their list. This is the year it all comes together.

Q-Clash grand final live from the Melbourne Cricket Ground.

Cheeky ladder prediction

1. Gold Coast Suns (runners up)

2. Sydney Swans

3. Geelong Cats

4. Brisbane Lions (premiers)

5. Fremantle Dockers

6. St Kilda Saints

7. Western Bulldogs

8. Hawthorn Hawks

9. Essendon Bombers

10. Adelaide Crows

11. Collingwood Magpies

12. Carlton Blues

13. GWS Giants

14. Port Adelaide Power

15. Melbourne Demons

16. Richmond Tigers

17. West Coast Eagles

18. North Melbourne Kangaroos

Brownlow: Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (St Kilda)

Rising Star: Jagga Smith (Carlton)

Coleman Medal: Ben King (Gold Coast)