Five takeaways: Hawthorn have bungled a top four spot, and Adelaide might just take it from them

The first of (way too many) AFL bye weeks is in the books and the key talking point is just how chaotic the ladder feels right now.

Collingwood, Brisbane and Geelong are once again the consistent, veteran sides that feel destined for top four, while Adelaide feels like the wildcard that could blow all predictions out of the water in the back half of the year.

Melbourne and Sydney blew big chances to press their top eight credentials, while Essendon and St Kilda don't feel like they're in the mix at all, despite sitting 10th and 11th.

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So, as we exit round 12, how many teams are actually still alive and in the race for finals?

Here are five takeaways from the weekend that was.

Can anyone make a late-season leap?

If you look at the ladder as it stands following round 12, Essendon sits 10th - they're battered with injuries and looking long term, St Kilda is 11th and viewing the season with a similar lens.

Melbourne and Sydney could not have fumbled their top eight hopes harder this weekend. Tough losses leave them with zero wiggle room. Last year's grand finalists seem down for the count right now.

Carlton had a bye and yet somehow looks awful coming out of round 12 given how good they made the Swans and Giants look in recent weeks - can they make a late run given their decent fixture? Maybe. They've done it before.

The Western Bulldogs are somehow a game out of the top eight, but are maybe the fourth most trustworthy side right now. They're in a different bracket to these other teams.

Port Adelaide seems pretty resigned to 2025 being a gap year ... so, are we somehow down to just nine teams fighting for eight spots with half the season to play?

No, someone will emerge ... surely? Hopefully?

Has Hawthorn bungled a year of contention?

Hey, remember when Hawthorn was the premiership favourite with the bookmakers coming out of Opening Round this year? That feels like a long time ago.

The Hawks have failed the credentials test big time in the last three weeks, losing to top four teams Gold Coast, Brisbane and Collingwood - with all three being rather convincing losses as well.

Hawthorn fans aren't melting down. After all, they're a young side with a ton of upside and many years to win with this group.

But growth isn't always linear. And one strong season doesn't guarantee the next with a young group. Look at Fremantle after 2022 or Carlton after 2023.

They absolutely have time to turn things around and they're only one win back from the top four, but their brutal fixture run isn't ending any time soon.

They still have to play the Bulldogs, Adelaide twice, Fremantle away ... and Brisbane (away) and Collingwood again.

It is going to take a 2024-esque run home from the Hawks to mount a premiership charge this season.

On the flip side, there's Adelaide...

If Hawthorn have bungled their chances of a top four finish, then Adelaide is potentially the team that could pinch the spot.

They have all the makings of a team that will finish with a flurry in 2025, having belted the teams in the tier below them in Sydney, St Kilda, Essendon and Carlton, though they also have fallen short against the likes of Geelong, Collingwood and Gold Coast.

Unlike the Hawks however, the Crows have a dream fixture run from here. Yes, they play Brisbane and Collingwood, but both games are at the Adelaide Oval.

Hawthorn in Tasmania and the Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium loom as their two big away matches.

Other than that, they should be heavy favourites in almost every other fixture, with their other away games being Richmond, West Coast and North Melbourne.

Adelaide could shock everyone and pile up the wins in the back half of the season.

Dockers-Suns was a classic eight-point game

Every time it feels safe to trust Gold Coast, they go and mess it all up. First it was the Richmond loss, and now dropping a home game to Fremantle.

It was a significant loss too, with both teams likely to be fighting for the same four spots in the bottom-half of the eight.

Fremantle's sudden reignition has them right in contention to play finals. They've picked up away wins over the Suns and Giants in the last three weeks, huge swing games for their season.

Now, they won't leave Optus Stadium until round 17, thanks to North Melbourne's generous home game donation, and there's every chance they win their next five games, given they play the Roos, Essendon, St Kilda, Sydney (away) and Hawthorn.

Gold Coast should still be on track for their first finals appearance ever. The fact that they face two teams likely playing for nothing in round 24 in Port Adelaide and Essendon is a big help ... but any more unexpected slipups could put them in serious danger.

Callan Ward is awesome

Sudden swerve away from finals chat to remind everyone that Callan Ward has had one hell of a career and deserves plaudits, if this is the end.

The GWS midfielder seemingly suffered a torn ACL against Richmond on Saturday, a heartbreaker given he was living separately from his family for one last shot at a premiership before retirement.

One of the toughest players of his generation, Ward will always be remembered as an inaugural Giant, one of their first captains, and a player who set the tone for a dozen superstar midfielders who stood alongside him over the years.

And of course he didn't disappear into the rooms after suffering the injury, like so many justifiably would. He not only came back out to cheer on the team, he gave the rousing three-quarter-time speech that lifted GWS to the win over Richmond. And they needed it.

They trailed by 28 points at the final break and it was looking like a dark day for the club, given how tight the race for the eight is, as laid out above.

Do they win if not for Ward's inspiring speech? Who knows, the young Tigers faded fast, but he certainly lifted them onto his shoulders one last time.