Nathan Brown: Hawks are ripe for the Bulldogs' picking

Shane Biggs shares the same surname as the great train robber Ronnie but they shared more than that last week when the Bulldogs pulled off the great heist out west.

How did they do it? How did they lose to Fremantle – who only won four games in 2016 – the game before but managed to topple an Eagles side that had won 15 of their last 17 at their home ground?

Simple. They changed their style to a kicking game that better suited the venue and were able to penetrate the Eagles web.

Against the Dockers the Bulldogs had 50 more handballs than kicks, but against the Eagles they turned that around to have 26 more kicks – a staggering turnaround of 76.

And to end the Hawks' quest for four-straight premierships they have to play the exact same game plan.

In every one of the Hawks losses this year – and there have been only six of those – the one common factor has been that the opposition has kicked the ball either more than the Hawks, or their kick-to-handball ratio has been well up on the kicking side.

Right now experts are jumping off the Hawks like they jumped off the Titanic. But don’t be fooled! This Hawthorn outfit was the better side against the Cats and this game will go right down to the wire.

Here are two stats to think about leading into the game that may be the deciding factors: The Hawks rank No.1 for kick-to-handball ratio and the Dogs rank 18th. If the Bulldogs can match the Hawks in this area they should win.

But flipping the coin – Hawthorn rank No.18 for contested footy and the Dogs rank No.1. Should the Hawks break even in this area, their uncontested game on the outside will lead them to a shot at another grand final.

Saying that, I think the Dogs by less than 10 points.

Focus

My focus is on Smith. Not because he missed the kicked after the siren, but because he lacked his usual game-breaking run. He and Bradley Hill are the key to breaking open the Dogs – both need 25-plus touches and they both need to hit the scoreboard.

Sydney v Adelaide

Greater Western Sydney turned this finals series on its head. They went into the game against the Swans wanting to match them for contested footy, tackling and finals pressure – and when I say finals pressure I also mean the mind games.

GWS were harder, completing 32 more tackles, and clearly won the push and shove aspect.

Whether you agree with Shane Mumford's tactics on lance Franklin or not, you can't deny the physical edge that they displayed highlighted by Steve Johnson breaking two tackles early in the game or Nick Haynes courageously running back with the flight of the ball to set up the side's first goal.

Now the big question is: can Sydney bounce back?

Of course they can!

This is the No.1 offensive team (Adelaide) against the No.1 defensive team (Sydney), and as we have seen time and time again in tight finals, the team with the best defence wins.

The Sydney Cricket Ground is the smallest ground in the competition and Adelaide won't be able to handle the confines.

The Crows like space to work in and their star studded forward line (for how good it is) don't kick a lot of goals from contested footy.

Eddie Betts, Taylor Walker, Tom Lynch and Josh Jenkins get the majority of their goals in an uncontested fashion which will suit the folding back Sydney defence.

Geelong on two occasions this year denied Adelaide goals from an open forward line and, at the SCG, they will face the same problem.

History will show Adelaide have won six of their last eight games at the SCG, but I think the venue is Sydney's biggest weapon. The last time they played at the SCG the Swans had 18 more tackles, 10 more clearances and 46 more uncontested marks on their way to a seven-goal victory.

I expect more of the same and the Swans to move into a prelim against the Cats.

Focus

Nick Smith will get the job on Betts and looms in the most pivotal role. Adelaide's forwards don’t take a heap of contested marks, which at the SCG is important, so the game breaker at ground level is Betts.

If Smith can do the job and shut him out, the Crows cannot win.