World won't U-turn on clean energy: report

No matter what happens at major climate talks in Paris, the globe won't "u-turn" and pull funds from emerging clean energy markets.

That's the view of the Climate Institute, which has developed three possible scenarios for the United Nations climate change conference in less than two weeks.

The institute's most optimistic scenario, labelled catalyst, would produce an agreement with a strong signal the globe boosts climate change action over time.

That would enhance investor confidence, accelerating business actions to limit emissions.

The next best option would be a momentum scenario, with a focus on robust domestic climate policies and finally the patchwork case, which the institute believes would result in vague outcomes from Paris.

Under the least optimistic scenario, investment in climate change solutions would continue but mainly in countries which view those industries as part of their long-term prosperity, such as China.

Climate Institute deputy chief executive Erwin Jackson said the process in the lead-up to Paris had put pressure on countries including Australia to pledge emissions reduction targets.

"(The conference) won't fix everything but the best possible agreement will be one that very clearly sets the world on a path to... avoiding global warming of two degrees," he said.

"We do not expect, under any of the possible outcomes, that the world will do a U-turn on clean energy investment trends."

However, the agreement must ensure accountability while being bankable and fair, he said.

Australia has pledged to slash carbon emissions by 26 to 28 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030, a goal the institute believes is weak and places the nation at the back of the developed pack.

The collective pledges are expected to limit global warming to 2.7 degrees, higher than the ultimate goal keeping warming below two degrees.

However, leaders insist the Paris summit is the start of the process.

THREE SCENARIOS

* CATALYST

Paris sends a strong signal that countries will accelerate action through time. This gives business and investors confidence to accelerate their own actions to limit emissions.

* MOMENTUM

The multilateral process supports the development of more robust and effective domestic actions through time. Countries implement more domestic policies to limit emissions and meet new targets.

* PATCHWORK

The negotiations achieve a minimal result where Paris outcomes are vague or ill defined. Global investment in climate change solutions still continues, but it is concentrated in those countries that already see these industries as being at the heart of their long-term prosperity.

(SOURCE: The Climate Institute)