Voters switch off in last campaign weeks

When taxi drivers are tuning out of the election campaign you know there's something happening.

Former Liberal leader John Hewson tells the story of a cab ride during which it was announced Bill Shorten was about to come on the radio.

The taxi driver switched off his radio saying he was sick of hearing about the election.

Any journalist will tell you taxi drivers are among the most politically attuned people in the country.

With two weeks until election day, rather than seeing a surge in interest in what the parties have to offer, the evidence points to voters being "over it".

Exhibit A is the fact at least four million people are expected to vote early.

But what does this means in practical terms for Labor and the coalition, both of which have yet to officially launch their campaigns and unveil their policy costings?

Labor's message of being "for" Medicare and higher spending on education has clearly sunk in.

Ditto the opposition's story about Malcolm Turnbull being pro-business and having adopted a more conservative approach to climate change.

The coalition's message about tax cuts driving jobs and growth and the need to move from a mining economy to one based on innovation is well understood.

Its attack on Labor's big spending plans and hammer blow to housing via changes to negative gearing is also widely known.

Labor, holding a narrow two-party lead in the polls, has the most to lose from a nation tuning out of the eight-week campaign.

History shows an opposition needs a tangible mood of change in order to unseat a government.

The evidence points to Shorten having failed to develop either a positive or negative public profile over three years.

Prior to Shorten taking the Labor leadership in 2013, no Essential poll had resulted in a preferred prime minister rating "don't know" rating in the 30s.

Even up against Tony Abbott at his most unpopular, Shorten's rating was still only 32 per cent with "don't know" a shade behind on 31 per cent.

It says a lot that, given the choice between Turnbull and Shorten, one-in-three voters don't feel motivated enough to express a view.

Labor's official launch in Penrith on Sunday will be an important step in filling out Shorten's profile.

The poll trends are pointing to a modest swing towards Labor, which could end up with an extra 11 seats but not enough to unseat the government.

Even in the most volatile state of South Australia - with the rise of the Nick Xenophon Team amid dire unemployment figures - punters believe only the seat of Hindmarsh will fall to Labor, while Mayo could go to the NXT. But the rest will be unchanged.

It's not surprising media attention is turning to whether Turnbull will give Abbott a frontbench role and who might contest the post-election Labor leadership ballot.