Victorian state election 2018: Labor poised for dominant win, with Coalition support to tumble, exclusive poll reveals

The Victorian Labor party is set for a stunning victory, Nine’s exclusive state election day poll has revealed.

Primary support for the Daniel Andrews-led Labor party is now at 41 percent, three percentage points above the vote result in the 2014 election, according to the YouGov Galaxy poll, which is calculated from a sample of 1528 voters.

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In bad news for the Coalition, support has dwindled to 38 percent - a four percentage point drop since the last election.

Distributing the results from the poll equates to a two-party preferred figure of 55 percent for Labor and 45 percent for the Coalition - a three point swing to the government.

This should allow Labor to form a majority government after today’s election.

Despite the recent scandals that have plagued the Greens, support for the party is now at 12 percent, which is slightly higher than in 2014.

Of the Greens preferences, Labor has picked about 80 percent and more than half of preferences of minor parties and independents. Support for independents and minor parties is up to 9 percent.

What could go wrong for Labor?

The loss of inner-city seats to the Greens and sandbelt seats to the Liberals is Labor’s biggest threat. However, this threat should be reduced through the strength of the party’s primary vote.

MOST INFLUENTIAL ISSUES FOR VOTERS

1.         Hospitals (41 percent) + Education (41 percent)

2.         Law and order (45 percent)

3.         Public transport (37 percent)

4.         Economy (22 percent)

5.         Power prices (21 percent)