Jaclyn Symes' first budget 'too focused on winning the election too far out'

Tuesday's budget was the Allan government's chance for a reset.

For a new treasurer to take a fresh approach.

To make bigger, tougher calls on spending, on expenses, on debt reduction.

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But. They squibbed it.

The five Budget Papers, plus Overview, Gender Equality Statement, Treasurer's Speech, and a folder full of media releases opted to mostly maintain the status quo.

The treasurer hinted to the Victorian Chamber and Melbourne Press Club Budget Lunch that she wanted to go further.

"I didn't get my own way every time," she said when discussing if she'd carved a different path to Tim Pallas, as she'd planned.

But she believes she "got the balance right".

That balance is a complex one.

There are the financial imperatives of ultimately trying to convince credit ratings agencies that Victoria is fiscally responsible and can keep or improve the current rating. A fall in the rating will be disastrous.

There are constant demands for more funding from colleagues overseeing big expensive portfolios like health, justice and transport. Areas that come with unforgiving, powerful stakeholders, including voters.

There's a tax-weary state, wanting a lighter load, but expecting improved frontline services.

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There are the well-known crises: cost-of-living, cost-of-doing-business, housing affordability.

There's a drought-stricken and increasingly frustrated regional Victoria clamouring for attention.

There's a premier wedded to Stage One of a mammoth rail project in the eastern suburbs, at any cost.

There's business desperate for a greater focus on growth and productivity and incentives to invest and remain in Victoria.

And there are the political imperatives of a looming election, and improving the possibility of Labor returning for history-making fourth term next November.

That looming election means next year's budget cannot slash and burn. Or raise taxes. Or risk any sort of unpopularity.

And it's precisely why this week's budget needed bigger cuts and more ruthless, unpalatable calls.

To create wriggle room for sweeteners, or perhaps even the holy grail - some tax relief in this, the most taxed state in the country.

Yes, departments are tightening their belts.

Most will have to trim a few hundred million off their, arguably, inflated budgets.

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There is still the full report and recommendations of the Silver review to come in another month or so.

The treasurer is hoping the $3.3 billion in savings on her books this week will grow once the review's finished.

But on balance, this week's budget falls short of what it should have been.

It was too focused on winning the election too far out.

The evidence of that is in the two biggest and most often repeated selling points ahead of budget day.

Increased jail spending - sells the tougher on crime message.

And Labor will be hoping, improves community perception of safety.

Free public transport for kids - sells the helping with household bills message. Except it doesn't start till election year 2026.

The treasurer is proud of this budget.

Symes told Wednesday's lunch that she said no to "most" of her colleagues when they came knocking with budget requests.

She guaranteed the $600 million surplus will survive. A claim the opposition will continue to mock.

She says too that she "got the balance right".

The jury is still out on that.

Some commentators have taken pot shots at her apparent lack of polish, of the shortness of her budget speech to Parliament, of fumbles in her speech to the business lunch.

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What they're focusing on as weaknesses may actually be strengths of the state's new treasurer.

Not everyone likes a slick salesman.

Plenty prefer a politician who speaks like they do. Who can connect with a room away from the lectern.

Who gives every impression of being unpretentious, down-to-earth, and self-deprecating.

Yes, this budget could and should have been bolder.

Jac Symes says she's just getting started. Critics underestimate her at their peril.

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