NZ has a better budget plan, a surplus

Treasurer Joe Hockey might be getting slaps on the back at home for his second budget, but the fiscally astute need look over the ditch for a real success story.

For an economy that got dragged into a recession during the global financial crisis, New Zealand has bounced back and is on course to deliver a budget surplus of $NZ176 million ($A163.29 million) in 2015/16.

"The books have come from an $NZ18.4 billion deficit four years ago to show steadily rising surpluses," NZ budget papers released on Thursday boast.

TD Securities chief strategist for the Asia-Pacific, Annette Beacher, says this credible path to surplus comes with no spending sweeteners required because the government is in a strong position.

"The big picture remains impressive ... especially compared with Australia," she said in a note to clients on Thursday.

While Australian small business and tradies are rubbing their hands about the prospect of tax cuts and other breaks, the treasurer's books are a sea of red.

And Australia is one of the few countries that didn't go into a GFC-inspired recession.

There's a $A35.1 billion deficit in 2015/16, $A25.8 billion in 2016/17 - but we may eventually get a surplus in 2019/20. Maybe.

NZ Finance Minister Bill English is also steering a stronger economy in the near term - 3.3 per cent growth in 2015 and 3.1 per cent in 2016.

Hockey, meanwhile, doesn't expect such strength until 2016/17 - and that's with the benefit of a so-called jobs and small business package.

But the most sensitive comparison between the two cross-Tasman rivals has to be unemployment.

The Kiwis can look forward to a jobless rate of just 4.7 per cent in 2017, the first time it will be below five per cent since the GFC.

But Hockey is predicting an even higher unemployment rate of 6.5 per cent in 2015/16 - beyond the recent 12-year peak of 6.3 per cent.

And it's not until 2018/19 that the rate has a "5" in front, let alone a "4".

"This is the kind of budget a responsible government can deliver when it's following a plan that's working," English bragged in his budget speech.

Hockey also insists his economic plan is working.

"Things are getting better," he said in his own budget speech last week - just not as quickly as our Kiwi cousins, he should have added.