Doubts over justice for MH17 victims

Russia is more likely to present a scapegoat for the MH17 disaster than help bring the perpetrators to justice, an academic says.

At an event by the Lowy Institute think tank in Sydney, Russia expert Dr Matthew Sussex expressed doubts over the international community's ability to capture, indict and try those responsible.

If a pro-Russian separatist was found to have fired a missile into the plane over Ukraine, the University of Tasmania lecturer believed they would have already disappeared over the Russian border.

"You would most likely see the identification of a scapegoat in the form of someone who is defined as a trigger man," Dr Sussex said on Wednesday.

He said the most likely explanation for the crime was that pro-separatists had stolen the surface-to-air missile from Ukraine forces.

In social media posts in June, Mr Sussex said pro-Russian separatists boasted the capture of such missiles from their enemy.

They likely accidentally shot down MH17 in "a really tragic case of mistaken identity".

Russia's incoherent response in the aftermath of the crash also suggested they did not see it coming, Dr Sussex said.

"I thought they would express outrage, go to the UN and say, 'This is absolutely terrible. We must do something about it ... we need to secure the area'," he said.

"I rather suspect they would have marched into Ukraine to 'secure the crash site'.

"That would have fooled no one."

Sadly, he said, tensions in the region would continue and he predicted more bloodshed.

Severe sanctions from European nations could stem the war, he said.

However, he pointed out the risk of Russia turning off its gas supply to Europe would prove too risky for some nations.