Morrison keeping budget close to his chest

Back in February Scott Morrison fronted the National Press Club to talk about the aims of his first budget.

The treasurer was widely chastised for being light on detail three months out from the budget's delivery.

Now, less than three weeks out, the detail is just as vague aside from some broad-brush aspirations.

We are told the May 3 budget will aim to drive jobs and growth, make the government live within its means and, unlike Labor, it won't be raising taxes.

"Labor tax more because they cannot summon the discipline not to spend more," Morrison told a Business Council of Australia dinner this week.

However, promises of tax cuts have disappeared from the day-to-day rhetoric even though we have been promised the budget will include the results of the government's much-touted tax review.

Australians, it seems, are not happy about what they are hearing or not hearing.

Two confidence gauges released this week showed the budget and the prospect of a July 2 election are getting to them.

The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence gauge fell for a fourth straight week and now stands below its long-run average for the first time in nearly two months.

Similarly the Westpac-Melbourne Institute monthly sentiment index fell by a further four per cent in April to show there are more pessimists than optimists for a second month in a row.

It is not what retailers want to hear because weak confidence is usually associated with weak spending.

John Peters, senior economist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, says the fast-approaching budget could be causing a little consumer heartache with memories of the Abbott-Hockey 2014/15 budget still fresh in their minds.

"The government's ongoing warnings about the nation's and the government's need to live within their means is unlikely to be calming music to consumer ears," Peters says.

Former treasurer Joe Hockey's now infamous first budget amongst its tough measures made cuts to health and education, raised taxes on the rich and increased the excise on petrol.

It was made to look worse because many of Tony Abbott's pre-election promises were broken.

Hockey tried to make amends with his second budget, delivering $5 billion in tax breaks for small business and dropping phrases such as "budget emergency".

Morrison now frames getting back to surplus as a long journey rather than a quick fix.

"There are budgets and budgets and budgets and budgets required to fix that problem," he said back in February.

But the treasurer is confident the government's responsible budget management will help protect Australia's treasured tripe-A rating from the world's three major rating agencies - Standard & Poor's, Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings.

A credit downgrade would hit Australia's borrowing costs abroad for the government and big business, which in turn would be passed on to consumers.

In a pre-budget analysis, Peter Jolly, head of research at National Australia Bank, says it is clear that to keep the ratings agencies comfortable with Australia's AAA ratings the government will need to demonstrate ongoing restraint.

He believes the Commonwealth is pushing "against the AAA boundary".

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has warned there won't be a "fistful of dollars" to give away in the budget.

It's going to be a delicate balance with an election potentially just months away.