Heat on for Joyce, Windsor in New England

On a dusty, gravel country road outside Tamworth, a busy Barnaby Joyce is dodging roadkill in his Landcruiser as he hurries to a local meeting.

A few dozen kilometres away in the sleepy town of Werris Creek, his political nemesis Tony Windsor is patiently waiting to welcome a grandchild.

Death and birth are potent in the battle for the seat of New England, where a deputy prime minister faces losing his job to make way for the potential rebirth of an independent's political career.

Having been branded the Nationals leader only this year, its loss would be a devastating blow for Joyce.

But if he's worried, he's not showing it.

"You should never be cocky, but I feel a sense..." he says, breaking off in his usual style.

Recent polls show Windsor could clinch the seat with preferences. Joyce, who's declared himself the underdog, will be relying on a strong primary vote.

As far as Joyce is concerned, this is an unnecessary fight that he didn't start.

Windsor doesn't consider himself to be the spoiler to his younger opponent's career.

His decision to run again for the seat he'd held for more than a decade was made after convincing his wife it was a good idea, and with his daughter's improving health.

"I didn't go away from this because I was sick of it. I just needed a break to do a few things with the family."

He's running on hot-button issues such as Gonski schools funding, mining and broadband, and pitching himself as the man with a vision for the future against a younger bloke hamstrung by his party on the past.

"Barnaby's a handbrake, he's trapped."

Indeed, as Joyce makes his way to a politics-in-the-pub session with residents of Merriwa, he's confronted by some of those very issues.

The locals want better roads and internet access and are worried about the impact of mining on their farms.

"We're not remote enough and not close enough to matter," one complains.

"We want more activity from you, Barnaby," another says.

"I hear you, I hear you," Joyce responds, promising to take their issues to cabinet.

Being in government and having access to the man with the chequebook is one of Joyce's perceived major advantages over Windsor - an independent, he says, will have to argue his case for funding to a minister.

Better to be that minister, Joyce insists. And the people of New England have access to the deputy prime minister's office.

"Why would we give it up?" the agriculture minister says.

Windsor is happy to rebut, pointing to the Wide Bay electorate of Warren Truss, Joyce's retiring predecessor, remaining one of the poorest electorates in the nation.

And Mark Vaile? "He was such a good deputy prime minister that they voted an independent in after he left the place," says Windsor.

Joyce's second campaign line is to remind everyone about Windsor's unpopular decision to support the Gillard minority government.

That will be emphasised when former prime minister John Howard comes to the electorate to bat for Joyce.

Howard is a huge asset, Joyce says, especially in a conservative-leaning seat.

Windsor isn't exactly shaking in his boots. He claims Howard tried to poach him as a Liberal back in 1998 - so if he was good back then, why not now?

"The political class seem to think that if you decorate a tree they'll all look at it and see it's sparkling and that attracts them. That doesn't work in the country," he says.

On the streets the level of local support both enjoy is palpable - you're either Team Barnaby or Team Tony.

Windsor is relying on his personal standing and connections with the electorate which he's established over a long time.

"It's not as if I'm an unknown candidate. My record is there for everybody to see - against Barnaby Joyce's which isn't much."

Joyce will push third-person advocacy and word-of-mouth campaigns for votes.

But while Windsor has all the time in the world to focus on the seat, the Nationals leader could be distracted having to divide his time with campaigning across the rest of the country.

And his task to keep his job has just got a bit bigger with parts of the Hunter now in New England following the boundary redistribution.

Joyce says there'll be some goodies in the upcoming budget for his electorate.

But he's dismissive of pork-barrelling accusations, saying it's damned if you do and damned if you don't.

"Do you want to be a pork barreller or seen as ineffective? I suppose if you've got to make a choice it's: `I better run with pork barrelling'."

Regardless of the higher stakes, Joyce says he's had tougher fights as a Queensland senator.

And if he loses? "I'll cross the bridge when I get to it. But I'm confident that won't happen."

Newborns are the full-circle theme for Windsor who's beaming with the news his daughter-in-law has given birth to a boy.

Jock, he grins, revealing the name.

But don't be fooled - Windsor is not simply a grandfatherly figure, but a clever and shrewd politician.

The question for him is, have the people moved on?

And for Joyce, do they want to?