Govt faces battle on defence funding plan

The Abbott government could be facing an uphill battle to fulfil an election promise to lift defence spending.

The coalition in opposition had pledged to spend to two per cent of GDP by 2023-24.

Mark Thompson, a defence budget analyst with the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, says the promise appeared to have been a "captain's call" by Tony Abbott.

Defence Minister Kevin Andrews affirmed that commitment on Tuesday in a video-taped address to a defence industry conference in Canberra.

"Be assured the government remains committed to increasing defence spending to two per cent of GDP by 2023-24 to maintain a credible and capable Australian Defence Force," he said.

Dr Thompson said the government made a good start in the budget last year, with defence spending rising to $29.3 billion or 1.8 per cent of GDP.

But the economic situation since had deteriorated, with falling revenue and $34 billion of savings measures held up in the Senate.

As a result the government was more than $70 billion worse off.

Dr Thompson said the government's fiscal problems represented political rather than economic constraints on its freedom of action.

He cited polling showing public support for increased defence spending peaked at 60 per cent in 2001 but was now below 40 per cent.

"Future defence spending is captive to events that we can't predict," he said.

If the economic situation deteriorated further and voters became more concerned about their declining superannuation and savings, defence could be pushed to the side, Dr Thompson said.

On the other hand, if some event such as a clash in the South China Sea underlined the need for a capable defence force there would be broad support for increased defence funding.

"We could see as we did in 2000 in the aftermath of East Timor, the electorate very sympathetic to defence spending and the government would respond," he said.