El Nino looking more likely for 2017: BOM

Australia is facing the possibility of a warmer and drier 2017, with weather forecasters saying the chances of an El Nino weather pattern are rising.

The Bureau of Meteorology says recent changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere, and international climate model outlooks suggest there is a 50 per cent chance of El Nino forming this year.

"Sea surface temperatures have been increasing in the eastern Pacific Ocean and are now warmer than average for the first time since June 2016, while the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has been trending downwards," BOM said.

Seven out of eight international climate models also indicate steady warming in the central tropical areas of the Pacific Ocean during the next six months, meaning an El Nino could form by July.

"However, some caution must be taken at this time of year, with lower model accuracy through the autumn months compared to other times of the year," BOM said.

El Nino is associated with below average winter-spring rainfall over eastern Australia and warmer than average winter-spring maximum temperatures in southern states.

Other effects can include a shift in temperature extremes, increased fire danger in southeast Australia, and a reduced number of tropical cyclones.

The El Nino that spread from 2015 into 2016 was one of the three strongest on record, causing drought and driving temperatures higher.

Temperatures were nearly 1C above average in 2016, making last year the fourth-warmest on record.

The nation sweated through record autumn temperatures before the El Nino broke down and the Indian Ocean began to warm, causing record wet conditions between May and September.