Signs Australia could be facing a hot, dry El Niño for 2026
Australia could be in for a hot, dry El Niño year according to early weather signs.
The Pacific region is currently in a La Niña phase, characterised by cooler and wetter weather conditions.
This began in spring 2025, but Weatherzone reports those conditions are now weakening and expected to decay further.
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A map showing the chances of warmer than normal weather in Australia in June this year. Weatherzone
The Pacific does not necessarily swing between El Niño and La Niña, but can remain in a neutral state, which is expected this autumn.
"The transition to a neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state in the Pacific Ocean this autumn opens the door for a potential switch to El Niño later this year," Weatherzone reported.
"While this is not guaranteed, it is not uncommon for El Niño to follow La Niña after the tropical Pacific Ocean passes through a neutral phase in the middle of the year."
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El Nino is characterised by warmer and drier weather. Getty
The Bureau of Meteorology currently rates the chances of an El Niño developing in the second half of the year at about 90 per cent, though other models offer lower odds.
"One important thing to note about the current El Niño forecasts is that predictions made at this time of year are less reliable than forecasts initiated after the southern hemisphere's autumn," Weatherzone said.
"This period of reduced certainty is known as the 'autumn predictability barrier', and it means that forecasters should have a clearer idea about the likelihood of El Niño as we get closer to winter in the southern hemisphere."
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It's not certain yet if an El Nino will develop. Getty
Weatherzone reported there were also signs of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole emerging later in the year.
The IOD affects weather on Australia's west coast, while the El Niño/La Niña systems affect weather in the east.
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"While it's too early to know whether El Niño or a positive IOD will develop later this year, there are early signs that these two climate drivers could tip the scales towards warmer and drier weather during the second half of 2026," Weatherzone said.
"Monthly temperature and precipitation forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are responding to this, hinting at abnormally warm and dry conditions over Australia during the upcoming winter."
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