Consumers fret over job securiy
The post-election confidence boom is fading fast as consumers worry about job security in the wake of recent high-profile employment cuts.
Westpac senior economist Matthew Hassan says recent falls in consumer confidence followed a sharp loss of faith in the economic outlook and escalating fears about job losses.
Announcements of job cuts in the car industry, Qantas and other manufacturing have clearly rattled consumers, he said.
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index, released on Wednesday, eased 0.7 per cent in March and edged below 100 points, indicating there are now more pessimists than optimists.
Confidence has fallen nearly 11 per cent since a peak in November, dropping for four straight months to stand at its lowest level since May last year.
More than two thirds of respondents to the Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey recalled news about economic conditions, with most viewing it as negative.
Almost half (45 per cent) recalled employment news - the highest reading since 1976 - and viewed it as unfavourable.
Macquarie Research economist Gabby Hajj says while it is not unusual for confidence surveys to be volatile, four consecutive falls represent more of a trend than an aberration.
Further falls in consumer confidence would raise questions about expectations of a sustained improvement in spending.
"That would likely be a concern for policymakers," Mr Hajj said in a note to clients.
The consumer data follows a key business survey on Tuesday that showed declining conditions and confidence.
Both are in contrast to recent strong retail spending and dwelling approvals figures.
Other data on Wednesday also showed demand for home loans has stabilised near a recent four-year high.
A total 51,054 loans were granted in January, compared to 51,045 in December, after the recent peak of 52,786 in November.
While the Reserve Bank was firmly on hold for now, Westpac is still expecting interest rate cuts in the final six months of the year, Mr Hassan said.
Labour force data on Thursday is unlikely to unleash a renewed bout of optimism.
Economists expect the number of people in employment to have risen by a modest 10,000 in February but not by enough to shift the jobless rate from a decade high of six per cent.
The federal government's leading employment index fell for a fifth straight month in March, and is almost pointing to a sustained period of sub-trend jobs growth.
The leading jobs indicator anticipates movements in the growth cycle of employment, with a turning point confirmed after six consecutive monthly moves in the same direction.
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