Crucial Closing the Gap government targets on track for failure, many heading backwards

Australia has achieved one of the Closing the Gap outcomes for the first time, but the vast majority of targets are on track for failure, and many are moving in the wrong direction. 

The target for preschool enrolment of 95 per cent has been met, according to the Productivity Commission’s 2026 Closing the Gap report released on Wednesday night.

It is the first outcome of 19 to be met before its deadline, after being agreed upon in November 2020.

Indigenous Australians Minister Malarndirri McCarthy hailed the achievement as a significant milestone. 

“I welcome the Productivity Commission update that shows we have officially closed the gap when it comes to preschool enrolments for First Nations children,” she said.

“This result is encouraging, as are improvements in eight other targets, including employment and education.” 

But Productivity Commissioner Selwyn Button warned that the target should not be looked at in isolation.

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“For example, while the target for enrolment in preschools has been met, the target for children assessed as developmentally on track is worsening nationally, with uneven progress across places and groups,” he said. 

Of the remaining outcomes, only three others are also on track to be met by their deadline.

Five outcomes are improving but are not on track to be met by their deadline, two have remained the same since 2016, four have worsened and another four cannot be assessed. 

The four worsening targets include adult imprisonment, suicide, children in out-of-home care and children developmentally on track. 

The ACT, the Northern Territory and Tasmania had the highest number of targets showing no change or worsening.

National Commissioner for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Children and Young People Sue-Anne Hunter said the data is upsetting but not surprising.

“Every year these targets stall or regress, a generation of young people carries the cost, and the same gaps pass to the next generation,” she said.

“That tells our children something about whether these systems were built for them.”

Hunter called on governments to bring Indigenous Australians into decision-making processes, apply approaches that work and fully implement the priority reform two.

McCarthy admitted the worsening results were concerning and called on states and territories to do more.

“Our government remains committed to Closing the Gap; working in partnership with First Nations communities, building on what is working and investing in the areas where we can make the greatest difference to generational change,” she said.

“State and territory governments must also back in their commitments under the National Agreement with investments and policies that improve outcomes for First Nations people.”

In the March quarter, there were 18,272 Indigenous people in custody in Australia, up 5 per cent from the previous quarter and 8 per cent from the same time last year.

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The Northern Territory had the highest rate of Indigenous imprisonment in the country, followed by Western Australia, South Australia and Queensland.

Indigenous Australians made up 37 per cent of all people in custody, despite only making up 3.8 per cent of the total population.

Button added governments need to do more to achieve the outcomes by their different deadlines, the last of which is in 2031.

“The deadline for meeting most of the targets is 2031 so we are already past the halfway point,” he said.

“Governments will need to redouble their efforts for the promise of the National Agreement on Closing the Gap to become a reality.”